June 30, 2022

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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 12, 2022…9:25 P. M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes.  Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather.  Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes.  Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both.  I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat.  Thanks for your understanding.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Sorry I was unable to issue a severe weather forecast last night, for today’s activity.  Had some computer issues.

Those of you that have paid attention to my previous tropical forecasts this month, I’m sure you’ve seen me mention some favorable signals.  I’ve been noticing as well, some weather groups have been posting about possible development in the W. Caribbean around the fourth week of this month, based on the GFS Global model.  This forecast is to address this, in which some type of  development appears it may be possible.  Although out of the realm of the time frame of accuracy for global models, the GFS model, especially the Ensemble, has been very consistent in developing a tropical depression in the W. Caribbean between the end of next week, toward the 24th of the month.  Analysis of various models and tools suggests the most probable time to be between days 7-10 in the period from 12Z this morning.  First, I’ll begin by pointing out some of the “favorable signals”.

The JMA Ensemble CHI200 update today indicates upward motion, or upward vertical velocities (blue and dark blue colors over the Caribbean during week 2, and week 3 and 4.  The ECMWF EPS CHI200 forecast is calling for strong upward motion between 17-22 May, with a favorable but weaker signal from 22-27 May.  The GFS 200mb velocity potential anomalies forecast indicates very strong upward motion over the Caribbean 17-19 May.
JMA WEEK 2 CHI200 ANOMALIES (21-27 MAY)
jma.2
JMA WEEK 3 AND 4
jma.3
JMA 28 DAY MEAN
jma.4
ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022051212_CONTROL_240
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022051212_MEAN_360
GFS 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES FORECAST
51
59
Analysis of forecast wind shear maps indicates shear may not be a factor during the time frame.  The ECMWF shows a little less favorable shear pattern, while the GFS indicates a more favorable pattern, and close to zero zonal wind shear.
ECMWF SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-2983200
GFS
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-2983200
GFS ZONAL SHEAR
850200ushear56
Based on past forecasting, the GFS typically is better at forecasting wind shear, however sometimes the ECMWF will outperform on the shear.

Both the ECMWF and GFS indicate the development of a radial upper level outflow pattern, around the time of the possible development.  While noted in the MSLP Anomalies analysis, nothing has developed by then, the favorable conditions I am mentioning could allow for cyclogenesis.  The feature of an upper level outflow causes divergence aloft at 200 mb, which in turn, causes surface convergence, allowing for a lowering of pressures at the sea surface.
ECMWF 200 MB WIND FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-2961600
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-3112800
GFS
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-3134400
Right now, the GFS is the only model indicating development, and I have put the MSLP Anomalies map into motion.  The GFS is usually over zealous in developing storms, however  from past seasons, it appears to be good at initialization, while the ECMWF will pick up better on something once it’s developed.  Once so, the ECMWF handles track and intensity better than the GFS.
GFS MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-1652356800-1653123600-1653220800-80
While the GFS is the only model showing development, it cannot be totally ruled out, even though the forecast is between days 7-10.  I’ll explain:

A feature called the CAG (Central American Gyre) seems to begin to cross into the extreme W. Caribbean.

image-33
Here is an article from WBRZ news explaining the CAG:
https://www.wbrz.com/news/the-central-american-gyre-and-tropical-formation/

The following 850 mb wind forecast indicates the CAG coming close to the Caribbean by day 5 (120) hours.  This “could” move into the W. Caribbean and be the source of the possible development.  Since the model used only goes out to 120 hours, I am nt able to confirm this at the moment.  However, with all of the favorable signals present, this seems the best scenario.
GFS 120 HOUR 850 MB WIND FORECAST (CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE)
gfs.t12z.850mb_wind.f120.camerica
Bear in mind, this DOES NOT indicate development is imminent, however based on what I’ve analyzed, it cannot be ruled out.  The ECMWF Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast still shows a half decent probability of a Tropical Depression forming by days 6-10.
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_168
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_192
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_216
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_264
This was posted by whom I call a colleague, Meteorologist Joe Bastardi from Weatherbell Analytics:
I opened up our tropical site this morning with this:

May 12, 2022, 6:15 a.m.

  • A small low-pressure system off the Carolinas will move onshore today and tonight.
  • The real reason for this update is that next week, and beyond, the pattern over the western Caribbean will become favorable for early-season development.The JMA is solidly placing the upward motion pattern in one conducive to this threat next week and beyond.

    The GFS may not be that far fetched in its overall messageThe reason I am on this is because of suspicions a couple of weeks ago we would have an early development once this MJO burst that was going to develop came around. If I am analogging years like last year and the year before why would I not also be looking for something to try to pop early. JMA. vv is what is most eye opening to me, not a specific model run, but that specific model run in a general sense can tell one he may be on the right track

    I will be monitoring this area and the Global models once we get closer to the time frame of 5 days out in the forecast period.

    You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

    Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-05-13 01:26:38

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