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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
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Good evening everyone!
From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes. Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather. Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes. Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both. I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat. Thanks for your understanding.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
Sorry I was unable to issue a severe weather forecast last night, for today’s activity. Had some computer issues.
Those of you that have paid attention to my previous tropical forecasts this month, I’m sure you’ve seen me mention some favorable signals. I’ve been noticing as well, some weather groups have been posting about possible development in the W. Caribbean around the fourth week of this month, based on the GFS Global model. This forecast is to address this, in which some type of development appears it may be possible. Although out of the realm of the time frame of accuracy for global models, the GFS model, especially the Ensemble, has been very consistent in developing a tropical depression in the W. Caribbean between the end of next week, toward the 24th of the month. Analysis of various models and tools suggests the most probable time to be between days 7-10 in the period from 12Z this morning. First, I’ll begin by pointing out some of the “favorable signals”.
The JMA Ensemble CHI200 update today indicates upward motion, or upward vertical velocities (blue and dark blue colors over the Caribbean during week 2, and week 3 and 4. The ECMWF EPS CHI200 forecast is calling for strong upward motion between 17-22 May, with a favorable but weaker signal from 22-27 May. The GFS 200mb velocity potential anomalies forecast indicates very strong upward motion over the Caribbean 17-19 May.
JMA WEEK 2 CHI200 ANOMALIES (21-27 MAY)
JMA WEEK 3 AND 4
JMA 28 DAY MEAN
ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST
GFS 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES FORECAST
Analysis of forecast wind shear maps indicates shear may not be a factor during the time frame. The ECMWF shows a little less favorable shear pattern, while the GFS indicates a more favorable pattern, and close to zero zonal wind shear.
ECMWF SHEAR FORECAST
GFS ZONAL SHEAR
Based on past forecasting, the GFS typically is better at forecasting wind shear, however sometimes the ECMWF will outperform on the shear.
Both the ECMWF and GFS indicate the development of a radial upper level outflow pattern, around the time of the possible development. While noted in the MSLP Anomalies analysis, nothing has developed by then, the favorable conditions I am mentioning could allow for cyclogenesis. The feature of an upper level outflow causes divergence aloft at 200 mb, which in turn, causes surface convergence, allowing for a lowering of pressures at the sea surface.
ECMWF 200 MB WIND FORECAST
Right now, the GFS is the only model indicating development, and I have put the MSLP Anomalies map into motion. The GFS is usually over zealous in developing storms, however from past seasons, it appears to be good at initialization, while the ECMWF will pick up better on something once it’s developed. Once so, the ECMWF handles track and intensity better than the GFS.
GFS MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION
While the GFS is the only model showing development, it cannot be totally ruled out, even though the forecast is between days 7-10. I’ll explain:
A feature called the CAG (Central American Gyre) seems to begin to cross into the extreme W. Caribbean.
Here is an article from WBRZ news explaining the CAG:
The following 850 mb wind forecast indicates the CAG coming close to the Caribbean by day 5 (120) hours. This “could” move into the W. Caribbean and be the source of the possible development. Since the model used only goes out to 120 hours, I am nt able to confirm this at the moment. However, with all of the favorable signals present, this seems the best scenario.
GFS 120 HOUR 850 MB WIND FORECAST (CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE)
Bear in mind, this DOES NOT indicate development is imminent, however based on what I’ve analyzed, it cannot be ruled out. The ECMWF Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast still shows a half decent probability of a Tropical Depression forming by days 6-10.
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY
This was posted by whom I call a colleague, Meteorologist Joe Bastardi from Weatherbell Analytics:
I opened up our tropical site this morning with this:
May 12, 2022, 6:15 a.m.
- A small low-pressure system off the Carolinas will move onshore today and tonight.
- The real reason for this update is that next week, and beyond, the pattern over the western Caribbean will become favorable for early-season development.The JMA is solidly placing the upward motion pattern in one conducive to this threat next week and beyond.
The GFS may not be that far fetched in its overall messageThe reason I am on this is because of suspicions a couple of weeks ago we would have an early development once this MJO burst that was going to develop came around. If I am analogging years like last year and the year before why would I not also be looking for something to try to pop early. JMA. vv is what is most eye opening to me, not a specific model run, but that specific model run in a general sense can tell one he may be on the right track
I will be monitoring this area and the Global models once we get closer to the time frame of 5 days out in the forecast period.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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