SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER STATEMENT…ISSUED MAY 07, 2022…8:40 P. M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

I would almost assure, most of you have seen the hype of possible tropical development from an area of low pressure forecast to move off the NC coast later tomorrow.  While it is remotely possible, I am here this evening to set the record straight.

For this low to become tropical in nature, it has some things to overcome:
1.) It must become detached from the frontal boundary associated with it.
2.) It must become warm or partial warm core.
3.) It needs to have some sort of upper air support as in outflow away from the system aloft.
4.) Maximum surface winds need to be near the center, vice hundreds of miles from it.

Based on my analysis this evening, the area of low pressure is still located over NC/VA. this evening:
WEATHERNERDS GOES SATELLITE ANIMATION
Based on the ECMWF and GFS MSLP anomaly maps, this area is forecast to exit into the Atlantic by tomorrow, and will pretty much stall well east of the coast for a couple days.  Thereafter, is it forecast to back toward the S to SSW and approach Florida by days 4 and 5.  Currently, the low seems to begin weakening by then.  I only took the animations out to 5 days (120 hours), because as pretty much a general rule of thumb, accuracy begins to wane after this time in the forecast period.
ECMWF AND GFS 120 HOUR MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST


Although both models indicate wind shear should only be 15-20 kts over the system, the upper level pattern is not favorable.  Based on my analysis of forecast upper level winds (200mb), the upper level pattern does not favor tropical support, based on the counter-clockwise flow shown in the graphic.  For a low to become fully warm core, outflow aloft should be established at 200mb, in order for the flow to come up from the ocean, all the way to the top of the system.  Now, the low could develop even in “that” type of upper pattern, however it constitutes a very slow process.  The second graphic depicts a good outflow pattern at the 200 mb level.  You can notice the streamline flow is clockwise.
ECMWF AND GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST


ECMWF 200 MB FORECAST

GFS 200MB PATTERN OVER HURRICANE EPSILON

Based on analysis of SST’s (Sea Surface Temperatures), support for a sub-tropical system does exist.  For a sub-tropical system, SST’s should be around 23-24C.  Based on current SST’s, once the low moves over the Gulfstream, temperatures there should be sufficient for a sub-tropical system.
CURRENT SST FROM WEATHER MODELS SITE

I am providing the following link regarding sub-tropical systems
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropical_cyclone

Analysis of the Cyclone Phase Evolution solution indicates this should be cold core at initiation, and begin to transition toward warm core near the end of the forecast period:
GFS SOLUTION

The current surface wind forecast from the ECMWF and GFS indicate maximum winds will be well away from the center.  This is another indication of a subtropical system, as with a tropical system, maximum sustained winds are near or circle the center of the storm.

ECMWF SURFACE WINDS FORECAST

Based on my analysis of all information analyzed, at the moment, I do not believe this will become a tropical system, however, if it detaches from the frontal boundary, it could become sub-tropical.

On another note, it may be time to begin keeping our eyes on the tropics.  In analysis this evening, it is noted the the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) may be entering our portion of the world by mid month, based on analysis of MJO Phase Space Diagram for casts, and CHI200 anomalies forecast.  It was noticed in analysis this evening, that a majority of the phase space diagram models are pushing into Phase 8, which tends to favor development close to the U.S. east coast, and FL. Straits.

The ECMWF Ensemble indicates favorable CH1200 anomalies (green/blue colored area)  from around 17-22 May.  The JMA Ensemble (which is very accurate on this) also indicates a favorable signal.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE CHI200 FORECAST

JMA ENSEMBLE CHI200 FORECAST 14-20 MAY

I will be monitoring the situation during the next week, and updating as needed.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST