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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good evening everyone!
I probably should not have mentioned this, as it will most likely dissipate tomorrow sometime, or the day after, due to forecast unfavorable conditions, but I felt it would be good practice for the upcoming season. An area of disturbed weather appears to have taken shape over a portion of the Bahamas. Satellite loop imagery did indicate heavy thunderstorm activity and lighting strikes, and some rotation is noted in the cloud motion:
GOES 16 IR SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
GOES 16 VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOP
Water vapor satellite loop imagery indicates the activity is in a sweet spot for moisture, denoted by the blue and green colors:
GOES 16 WATER VAPOR LOOP
Analysis of ASCAT imagery indicated no circulation a the surface, however analysis of vorticity maps did indicate vorticity at the mid level (500 mb), over the Bahamas.
You’ll note the fanning out of the cloud pattern over the area, and this is due to moderate upper level divergence. Currently, there is a lack of lower level convergence, and wind shear is on the order of 25 – 30 kts from the NW:
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND WIND SHEAR MAPS
Based on my analysis of forecast shear maps, wind shear is forecast to increase dramatically over the area in the next 24 hours, while this area supposedly moves off toward the NE. I do not expect any development of this area.
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Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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