November 26, 2022

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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER STATEMENT…ISSUED APR. 16, 2022…6:20 P. M. EDT

3 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

I probably should not have mentioned this, as it will most likely dissipate tomorrow sometime, or the day after, due to forecast unfavorable conditions, but I felt it would be good practice for the upcoming season. An area of disturbed weather appears to have taken shape over a portion of the Bahamas.  Satellite loop imagery did indicate heavy thunderstorm activity and lighting strikes, and some rotation is noted in the cloud motion:
GOES 16 IR SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
69715850
GOES 16 VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOP
53870765
Water vapor satellite loop imagery indicates the activity is in a sweet spot for moisture, denoted by the blue and green colors:
GOES 16 WATER VAPOR LOOP
69715850wv
Analysis of ASCAT imagery indicated no circulation a the surface, however analysis of vorticity maps did indicate vorticity at the mid level (500 mb), over the Bahamas.
wg8vor2
You’ll note the fanning out of the cloud pattern over the area, and this is due to moderate upper level divergence.  Currently, there is a lack of lower level convergence, and wind shear is on the order of 25 – 30 kts from the NW:
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND WIND SHEAR MAPS
wg8dvg
wg8conv
wg8shr
Based on my analysis of forecast shear maps, wind shear is forecast to increase dramatically over the area in the next 24 hours, while this area supposedly moves off toward the NE.  I do not expect any development of this area.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-04-16 22:18:38

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