June 19, 2024

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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER STATEMENT UPDATE…ISSUED APR. 23, 2024…2:30 P.M. EDT

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
This special statement pertains mainly to commercial shipping, fishing, and Bermuda given the extent of the wave heights.  Though this should have no affect on the U. S., I thought it important for oceanic shipping and any yachtsmen sailing the open Atlantic.  Information is based on the 06Z model runs.

The low I had mentioned in my initial statement is now developing and is located near 35.0N;70.0W, and is forecast to move toward the NE in about 24 hours.  The ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability still indicates the possibility of a sub-tropical entity.  However, cyclone phase evolution modeling has come closer to this remaining cold core, or very borderline shallow warm core, and keeping it frontal in nature.  The system is currently attached to a frontal boundary, with an occlusion attached to the center.  For this to transition, it would need to detach from the front, or the front dissipate, and would at least have to become a partial warm core system.  IF this is going to occur, it has approximately 24 hours from 09Z this morning to accomplish this before SST’s become colder and become below the threshold for STS development.

ATLANTIC VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
69614608
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 00Z 23 APR.
ecmwf-bufr-conuswide-prob_td_1d-3916800
ecmwf-bufr-conuswide-prob_td_1d-4003200
eps_tropcyc_prob_34_atlantic_72NHC TAFB SURFACE ANALYSIS
USA_06Z
The ECMWF indicates a well defined low pressure area, which is forecast to strengthen briefly, and then begin to weaken and dissipate as it moves quickly to the NE.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-conuswide-mslp_anom-1713852000-1713862800-1713981600-80

ECMWF AND GFS CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION INFORMATION:
44.phase2
17.phase2
Both global models do indicate wind shear to relax to around 20 – 25 knots with a divergent pattern aloft.  Given this, the process for any strengthening of the low will remain baroclinic.

Surface winds near and away from the center could reach Tropical Storm force, and wave heights could reach 14 – 20 ft near the center, with wave heights 8 – 10 ft near the coast of Bermuda.
ECMWF SURFACE WINDS FORECAST (knots)
ecmwf-deterministic-conuswide-wnd10m_stream-1713852000-1713862800-1713981600-80
ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST
ecmwf-wave-conuswide-sig_height_wave_dir-1713830400-1713862800-1713981600-80
I will continue to monitor this and update if necessary.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-04-23 18:36:51

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