SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED MAY 14, 2022…12:00 NOON EDT7 min read
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes. Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather. Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes. Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both. I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat. Thanks for your understanding.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
Those of you that have paid attention to my previous tropical forecasts this month, I’m sure you’ve seen me mention some favorable signals in regard to development. I’ve been noticing as well, some weather groups have been posting about possible development in the W. Caribbean around the fourth week of this month, based on the GFS global model. This forecast is to address this, in which some type of development appears to be possible. Although out of the realm of the time frame of accuracy for global models, the GFS model, especially the Ensemble, has been very consistent in developing a tropical depression in the W. Caribbean between the end of next week, toward the 24th of the month. Analysis of various models and tools suggests the most probable time to be between the 21st – 24th. Favorable conditions are still forecast. The GFS has been remarkably consistent on a run to run basis, in developing a hurricane in the GOMEX. The ECMWF is now showing low pressure in the extreme EPAC, with the CMC indicating lowering pressures in the GOMEX, closer to the end of the forecast period. This will be shown in the MSLP Anomalies maps located further down in the forecast.
The JMA Ensemble CHI200 indicates upward motion, or upward vertical velocities (blue and dark blue colors over the Caribbean during week 2, and week 3 and 4. The ECMWF EPS CHI200 forecast is calling for strong upward motion between 14-19 May, with a favorable but weaker signal from 19-24 May. The GFS 200mb velocity potential anomalies forecast indicates very strong upward motion over the Caribbean during the period (red circled areas), as well as the ECMWF and GFS deterministic global models. What these upward velocities accomplish is, it “evacuates” the rising air that comes up from the surface, and diverges it, or spreads it out. In turn, air has to be replaced at the surface, so convergence occurs at the sea surface, in turn lowering MSLP and can allow for low pressure to develop.
JMA WEEK 2 CHI200 ANOMALIES (21-27 MAY)
JMA WEEK 3 AND 4
JMA 28 DAY MEAN
ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC CHI200 FORECAST
GFS 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES FORECAST
The latest MJO Phase Space Diagrams now indicate the MJO to shift into PHASE 8. The majority of ensemble members (yellow lines) tend to indicate this. The JMAN as a rule of thumb, is generally the best model for following the MJO phases.
JMAN PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST
The following map indicates the correlation of MJO phase 8 and phase 1, and where development is the most favorable. The orange and red areas are the favored locations. with the left map being actual observed, and the right being model forecasts:
Analysis of forecast wind shear maps indicates shear may not be a factor during the time frame. The ECMWF shows a favorable shear pattern closer to the extreme EPAC, while the GFS indicates a more favorable pattern over where it develops the low.
ECMWF SHEAR FORECAST
The majority of the global models (except the JMA) indicate an upper level outflow pattern. I will only be posting the ECMWF and GFS. This setup very much favors development.
ECMWF AND GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE PATTERN
The following is an animation of the GFS MSLP anomalies forecast, along with still graphics of what the ECMWF and CMC models are indicating:
CMC (CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTER)
A feature called the CAG (Central American Gyre) could begin to cross into the extreme W. Caribbean.
Here is an article from WBRZ news explaining the CAG:
The following 850 mb wind forecast indicates the CAG coming close to the Caribbean by day 5 (120) hours. This “could” move into the W. Caribbean and be the source of the possible development. Since the model used only goes out to 120 hours, I am not able to confirm this at the moment. However, with all of the favorable signals present, this seems the best scenario. There is also a tropical wave present near 50W, moving toward the west, and this could possibly enhance the probability for development, by combining with the CAG.
GFS 850 MB WIND FORECAST (CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE) 120 HOUR FORECAST
GOES ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP (TW NEAR 50 W)
The ECMWF Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast still shows a half decent probability of a Tropical Depression forming, however the model indicates a westward shift into the EPAC
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY
ALL of these items I have just gone over, are very favorable “signals” or pattern conditions that do point to development. However, is this something to be overly concerned about right now? No. Even though the GFS has been consistent run to run over the past week, one should look for solid consistency in the other models. Even though over the past 2-3 seasons the GFS has seemed to be decent at initialization, it has presented to us, a lot of “ghost” systems. This is due to a problem termed as convective feedback, which the GFS has been notorious for. In other words, the model detects a buildup of tropical heat and moisture, as well as the piling up of the trade winds in a location, so the model creates a storm to disperse the heat out of the tropics. Though I mentioned this forecast is not overly concerning at the moment, given the “signals”, one should monitor the Caribbean during the next 5-7 days. The time to really pay attention, is if we see an area of low pressure beginning to form on satellite imagery.
I will continue to monitor the area and global models, and will update if necessary.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: email@example.com
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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