SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED MAY 09, 2022…8:45 P. M. EDT

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

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Good evening everyone!

From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes. Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather. Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes. Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both. I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat. Thanks for your understanding.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

As promised, I have been monitoring the low pressure area east of the NC/VA coastal areas. Satellite imagery this evening shows a fairly defined area of low pressure. However the morning surface analysis map from TAFB indicated this low is still attached to the frontal boundary. In addition, we’ve had a tropical wave roll off the African coast. The following satellite imagery shows both areas. ASCAT did pick up on the wave earlier today.
NON TROPICAL LOW

TROPICAL WAVE

ASCAT IMAGE

The non tropical low is still forecast to continue to back toward the SSW, and eventually west into the Florida Peninsula. However by then, it is forecast to weaken and dissipate. As this backs toward the SSW, some near to weak tropical storm force winds could affect the immediate coastal areas until weakening begins, based on analysis of the ECMWF surface winds forecast over the next 96 hours:
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST

ECMWF 10M WIND SPEED

The low is still facing the same solution…although wind shear over the immediate area will be somewhat conducive, the upper level pattern does not indicate any outflow pattern in the forecast. In addition, you’ll note in the RH animation, dry air will be affecting the low at the mid levels (500mb) in a few days.
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-east-shear_850v200-2248800
200 MB STREAMLINE PATTERN

RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST ANIMATION

Based on my analysis, I do not believe this will become tropical at the moment. IF it becomes a partial warm core system, it could become sub-tropical, however ONLY if detached from the frontal boundary. Right now, I feel this will be more inline as a Gale center type system, unless the conditions I’ve mentioned change over the next 48-72 hours.

As far as the tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic, it has lost a good deal of the shower activity today, and I am not expecting anything to become of this.

Elsewhere, I am noticing posts regarding a possible tropical development in the Caribbean OOA the 24th of May. Yes, this is 15 days out, and as I have stated numerous times, accuracy of global model output begins to become less accurate after the 7 day period. However, upon analysis of MJO Phase Space Diagrams regarding the MJO, analysis of the recent ECMWF EPS CHI200 anomalies forecast, and analysis of the ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability modeling, I will be monitoring the Caribbean beginning next week. The ECMWF EPS Cyclone Probability forecast is indicating the possible presence of a Tropical Depression coming to fruition beginning in the 7 – 9 day time frame in the forecast period. The model indicates a 25% prob of a depression in the 7-9, a 30% prob in the 8-10, and a 40% prob in the 9-11.
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_216
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_240
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_264
I have not had the time to analyze shear and upper pattern forecast this evening, however once we get to the 5-7 day time frame in the forecast period, I will be looking at things. This probability, even though a little past the accurate forecast parameters, may not be far fetched, as the ECMWF EPS control indicates fairly good upward motion, or upward vertical velocities (blue/green areas) beginning mid month, and a decent majority of models indicate the phase space diagrams trying to push the MJO into phase 8, which favors development.
ECMWF EPS CHI200 FORECAST
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022050912_CONTROL_240