June 22, 2024

Weather News Road Conditions

Weather News & Forecast

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 24, 2024…8:00 P.M. EDT

4 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! 
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

Dog with money

 

weather_1000px
I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

I have been watching the low that has come down from around the Azores, and the NHC has issued a special tropical outlook regarding it.  The NHC has designated a LOW (10%) probability for cyclone development in the outlook which was issued at 4:10 p.m. EDT today.  NHC already testing out the yellow crayons, but they are probably bored, like I am.  The CIMSS website does have this listed as INVEST 90L, however NOAA and the Navy ATCF do not.  There was no info listed in the ATCF BTK site.
NHC 7DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_7d1
I performed a quick analysis this evening, and based on this analysis, there should be no further development in the forecast, unless forecast conditions change drastically.  Thunderstorm activity has been noted during the day, up to this evening, waxing and waning NE of the COC.  This is due to current wind shear over the system on the order of 40 – 45 kts, as well as dry air.  Shear is forecast to remain in place and increase to 60 kts over the next 2 days.  Although thermal forecast diagrams indicate currently, a shallow warm core system, this is forecast to change.  Though it is warm core, thunderstorm activity must persist and be organized for at least 24 hours in order to be classified.
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR
90L.SHEAR
WEATHERNERDS EATL SATELLITE LOOP
aoi
Analysis of relative humidity, from the surface to 700 mb, where the system is taking in drier air from 700 mb up to 500 mb.  Water vapor imagery shows this low surrounded by very dry air.  Recent TPW (Total Precipitable Water) indicates a high lack of moisture as well.
ECMWF 850 MB AND 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-rh850-4003200
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-rh500-4003200
WEATHERNERDS EATL WATER VAPOR LOOP
aoi.wv

CIMSS CURRENT TPW
90L.TPW
CIMSS CURRENT DRY AIR
90L.DRY AIR
Based on analysis of current and forecast steering maps, the low should continue toward the SSW over the next 48 – 60 hours.  Based on the premise of the listed detrimental forecast conditions, this low should dissipate, or begin to dissipate within that portion of the forecast period.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 – 10 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-04-25 00:01:58

All news and articles are copyrighted to the respective authors and/or News Broadcasters. eWeatherNews is an independent Online News Aggregator


Read more from original source here…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *