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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 22, 2023…8:50 P.M. EDT

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Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening!

The following is my outlook forecast for the upcoming 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11– 14
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:           0
HURRICANES:                 0
MAJOR HURRICANES:  0

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia

Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

As of this evening, the NHC has dropped the area of disturbed near the Bahamas.  This area remains a trof of low pressure with no discernible surface circulation.

Analysis this evening of global models (I will be using mainly ECMWF and some GFS graphics) indicates as this area of disturbed weather (trough) continues to move off toward the NNE or NE, it becomes strongly elongated, and a trough split appears to occur in the current forecast MSLP Normalized anomalies maps.  This is where a piece of the trough breaks off and backs away from the original low.  As this occurs with this particular system, an area of low pressure is forecast to begin development in the extreme northern Bahamas/Florida east coastal area in about 60 – 72 hours .  This is forecast to begin as a very large lowering pressure area, and finally get weaker and consolidate into a smaller, weak surface low.  The low is forecast to move in a general northward motion to possibly NNW closer to land, affecting the NC/SC areas.  The ECMWF has it coming ashore near the OBX, while the GFS suggests near the NC/SC border.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST ANIMATION
ecmwf-deterministic-eastgulf-mslp_norm_anom-1684756800-1685016000-1685275200-80

gfs-deterministic-eastgulf-mslp_norm_anom-1684756800-1685016000-1685275200-80
As the low becomes better consolidated, it will produce gale force winds close to the coast.  Ares facing onshore winds could see some minor coastal flooding and minor beach erosion.  You’ll be able to note the low center better in the surface wind forecast maps.
ECMWF AND GFS SURFACE WINDS
ecmwf-deterministic-eastgulf-wnd10m_stream_mph-1684756800-1685016000-1685275200-80
gfs-deterministic-eastgulf-wnd10m_stream_mph-1684756800-1685016000-1685275200-80
Based on analysis of current forecast shear maps and upper level wind pattern, this system will encounter shear.  This shear relaxes briefly as development occurs, before increasing to unfavorable levels.  The upper level pattern will be diffluent, meaning streamlines will be “fanning” apart from each other.  This may help to evacuate “some” air above the low, however not optimal for tropical development.  However, based on the fact that the current cyclone phase evolution analysis maps indicate this begins as warm core before transitioning to cold core upon reaching the shore, and the fact the low will be traversing 26C sea surface temperatures, the slim possibility does exist if this low begins to “feedback”, that it “could” briefly transition to sub-tropical.  The following is the cyclone phase evolution analysis forecast:
Lower Troposphere Thermal Wind Vs Lower Troposphere Frontal Nature
135.phase1
Lower Troposphere Thermal Wind Vs Upper Troposphere Thermal Wind
135.phase2
CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MAP
ostia-all-eastgulf-ocean_sst_c-4627200
Seas are expected to increase over the area as this low becomes better consolidated:
WAVEWATCH 3 FORECAST
ww3-eastgulf-ww3_sig_wave_height_dir-1684756800-1685016000-1685275200-80
The following are forecast precipitation totals out to 120 hours in the forecast period:
ECMWF
ecmwf-deterministic-eastgulf-total_precip_inch-5188800
GFS
gfs-deterministic-eastgulf-total_precip_inch-5188800
WPC
p120i

I will continue to monitor the area during the next 72 hours as well as various modeling for any significant changes  Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2023-05-23 00:40:32

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