Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States on D4... Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues an overall trend for more muted cyclogenesis in the CONUS downstream of an amplified upper trough ejecting from the MS Valley towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on D4. While low-level southerlies will strengthen ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, the more prominent intensification appears to be largely occurring near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard later in the period. These trends lower confidence in sustaining greater than low-probability wind/tornado threats during the day to evening on Sunday amid a thermodynamically limited warm sector. At least low severe probabilities will likely be highlighted in the next outlook cycle; centered on parts of GA, the Carolinas, and southeast VA where low to mid 60s surface dew points overlapping 850-mb winds in excess of 40 kts are still indicated. ...D5-8... Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of the Gulf.
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