Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range forecast guidance is in fairly good agreement for much of the Day 4-8 period. General consensus is that a closed upper low will develop over the Midwest and gradually shift east/northeast toward the Great Lakes with time. Large-scale upper troughing will persist east of the Mississippi River through Day 8/Fri. At the same time, an upper ridge will develop and shift east across the western half of the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure and attendant cold front will develop east in tandem with the upper low/trough over the Midwest and eastern states. Thunderstorms will be possible across the Southeast Days 4-5/Mon-Tue ahead of the front, but weak large-scale ascent and poor thermodynamics will likely preclude severe potential. In the wake of the cold front, high pressure over the Rockies and Plains will lead to stable conditions.
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