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SPC Dec 16, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook – Storm Prediction Center RSS Feed

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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
The risk for severe thunderstorms remains negligible across the U.S.
...01z Update...
Plains upper trough will shift slowly east overnight with the
primary zone of high-level diffluence expected to focus across the
lower MS Valley and lower latitudes. Large-scale forcing should
encourage surface cyclogenesis well offshore -- likely over the
southern Gulf basin. Resultant low-level convergence over southeast
TX/LA will be somewhat negated by this offshore development.
Early-evening radar data suggests a few stronger showers are noted
along the advancing cold front west of Victoria TX, but otherwise
most convection remains quite shallow and lightning-free. While
buoyancy will remain weak through sunrise, forecast soundings
suggest some threat for lightning despite poor lapse rates/buoyancy.
Lightning may also accompany deeper updrafts across extreme south
FL, but more likely over the Straits.
..Darrow.. 12/16/2023

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2023-12-16 00:37:57

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