Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... Lightning has diminished with convection embedded within a band of precipitation, ahead of mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Great Plains. Stronger mid/upper support and colder air aloft, associated with a remnant embedded low, appear to be shifting northeast of the better low-level moisture return off the northwestern Gulf, and potential for renewed thunderstorm activity may be low in the near term. However, as the trailing flank of the mid-level troughing begins to dig across central Texas, toward the coastal plain, guidance suggests that probabilities for scattered weak thunderstorm activity may increase across parts of eastern/southeastern Texas later this evening or overnight. ..Kerr.. 12/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023/ ...Discussion... A central U.S. upper trough -- flanked by ridging over both eastern and western portions of the country -- will shift slowly eastward today and tonight. In response, very weak surface cyclogenesis will occur, with a low expected to reside over the southern Iowa/northwestern Missouri area early Saturday morning. Ahead of this low, and the associated/trailing weak surface trough/front, very little in the way of moisture return is expected, given the northeasterly/northerly cyclonic flow over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico. As such, an overall lack of buoyancy with this system suggests only occasional/sporadic lightning through tonight -- primarily across the eastern Texas/western Louisiana/Arklatex area. A few flashes may also occur across southern Florida and the Keys later in the period, within easterly low-level flow east of the weak southern Gulf surface low. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.
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