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SPC Dec 12, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook – Storm Prediction Center RSS Feed

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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...NM and TX...
A shortwave trough will continue east across NM into northwest TX by
early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime
in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough
will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection,
shifting east from NM and west TX into central TX by Thursday night.
Elevated buoyancy will remain meager, suggesting that thunderstorm
coverage will be sporadic. Guidance is consistent that the plume of
steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D2 will
weaken early D3, inferring severe hail potential should be
...South FL...
Rounds of lower-topped convection should continue within a
persistent low-level northeasterly flow regime, namely along the
southeast coast. Weak mid to upper-level lapse rates, slightly worse
compared to D2, suggests instability will be marginal with low-end
thunderstorm probabilities.
..Grams.. 12/12/2023

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2023-12-12 08:30:39

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