May 15, 2021

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SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER RISK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 27, 2021…7:55 P.M. EDT

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  Without these sites, I’m pretty much left in the dark.  The F5 Data maps I post as well for severe weather, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), are also out of pocket to me. Please keep in mind, even when the hurricane season ends, I have to keep up on these site subscriptions for severe weather and winter weather.  In all, I put out $68 a month to provide you, what I hope are accurate forecasts. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the information I use in my forecasts
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

Good evening,
In credit to the SPC, I will post portions of the outlook text as deemed necessary with the understanding I am in no way posting the SPC information and claiming it as “my” forecast, nor plagiarizing the SPC, but to hopefully provide a better understanding to the synopsis.

I am going to have to make this short, as I didn’t get off work until later in the afternoon and will be turning in for the evening, soon.  I will be posting the link to the current DAY 2 synopsis from the SPC, so it may be read in its entirety.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are possible from across parts of Oklahoma southward into the Texas Hill Country on Wednesday. Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible with these storms. Isolated strong storms also are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley to western New York.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 2 TORNADO OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 2 HAIL OUTLOOK

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point
SPC DAY 2 WIND OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Based on analysis of the outlook, it appears pretty much that the recipe for severe weather is close to yesterday’s conditions, with moderate CAPE values, lifted indices, wind shear, and mid level lapse rates.  Based on my analysis of the NAM-WRF model data, and NCEP SREF model, severe weather may initiate early in the morning within the slight risk area.  Parameters and indices suggest the best probability for hail and tornadic activity should occur near and within the outlined areas in the NAM-WRF F5 DATA maps.  While the NAM-WRF and SREF indciate this activity (mainly tornado) will occur mostly within the slight risk area, some severe thunderstorms with isolated tornado activity may occur within the 2% outline currently over the NY/PA area, with initiation occurring toward late afternoon / early evening.  Severe and Tornado indices indicate the severe and tornado threat for TX may be ongoing until around 10:00 p.m. CDT with an increase in strength of the analyzed indices.  As a reminder, these areas could change given any risk upgrade from the SPC, and any new information from the next 2 model runs.  Please refer to the SPC home page link below the convective watches graphic for the DAY 1 outlook for tomorrow.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF 7:00 A.M. CDT

F5 DATA NAM-WRF 10:00 A.M. CDT

F5 DATA NAM-WRF 1:00 P.M. CDT


F5 DATA NAM-WRF 4:00 P.M. CDT

F5 DATA NAM-WRF 7:00 P.M. CDT



F5 DATA NAM-WRF 10:00 P.M. CDT

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)


SPC HOME PAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2021-04-27 23:54:35

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