April 12, 2021

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Some Sun at Times Through Midweek, Strong Storms Late on New Year’s Eve : The Alabama Weather Blog

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We are on a one-a-day video schedule for this week as James is on vacation. Bill will have a forecast update before 4:00 pm this afternoon.

Sun Plays Peek-a-Boo Through “Hump Day”
The cold front that moved through the area on Monday will be well to our south to start the day today. Unfortunately, skies will continue to stay partly to mostly cloudy throughout the day. The good news is that temperatures will be mild for this time of the year, reaching the mid-50s to the mid-60s, just over normal highs for the end of the year.

A strong cold front will be getting its act together west of us on Wednesday, which will put us in the warm and moist air advection out ahead of it. Clouds will build and skies will be mostly cloudy. At this point, rain looks to hold off until well after midnight, so “Hump Day” looks to stay dry. Highs will be in the lower 60 to right around 70 degrees.

2020 Looks to End on a Stormy Note
The latest run of the GFS has slowed the eastward progression of the cold front and holds the scattered rain and storms off from entering Central Alabama until the mid to late morning hours on New Year’s Eve. The much heavier activity will move in during the evening and late-night hours. During this time, a few strong to severe storms may be possible.

The Storm Prediction Center has the southern half of Central Alabama in a 15% probability for severe thunderstorms to occur within 25 miles of a certain point. The next update will be out later this morning. Timing at this point for the threat of stronger to severe storms look to be from 3:00 pm Thursday to around 3:00 am Friday morning.

There will be a decent amount of instability with the action as it moves through during the late-night and overnight hours, reaching around 500 J/kg according to the 00z run of the GFS. Combine that with decent shear and helicity values forecast to be present at the same time, there will be a threat of damaging thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 MPH and the potential of a few tornadoes.

We’ll have a better idea later in the day today as the higher-resolution models come into view for the entire event. For now, afternoon highs on Thursday will be in the lower 60s to the lower 70s.

A Wet Start to the New Year for the Area
The cold front will be exiting the area during the mid-morning hours with the rain and storms completely out of Central Alabama by or just after the midday hour. Once that activity moves out, cooler and drier air will start to move in, but afternoon highs will reach the upper 50s to the lower 70s before that takes place.

The Central Alabama Weekend
We will be sandwiched between the cold front to our southeast with a cold front over the northern Midwest region and up into the Great Lakes Region. We’ll have a mix of sun and clouds with afternoon highs reaching the upper 40s to the lower 60s across the area.

Even though we’ll have more sunshine on your Sunday, it will actually be a few degrees cooler than what we’ll see on Saturday. Highs will be in the upper 40s to the upper 50s.

A Nice Start to the First Work Week of 2021
Monday’s weather will be absolutely fabulous as skies will be mainly sunny with maybe a passing cloud or two. Afternoon highs will be in the lower 50s to the lower 60s across Central Alabama.

Today In Weather History
1830: A very heavy snowstorm ushered in the “winter of the deep snow”. The storm produced 30 inches of snow at Peoria IL and 36 inches at Kansas City MO. Cold and snow continued until the middle of February causing great suffering among pioneers.

1919: The American Meteorological Society was founded at St. Louis, Missouri.

Beach Forecast Center
Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Dauphin Island, AL, to Panama City Beach, FL, on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region that you are interested in.

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Category: Alabama’s Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Weather Xtreme Videos

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