Latest Mesoscale Discussion from the SPC:
SUMMARY… A few storms may produce locally damaging gusts, with a threat of a brief tornado as well. Coverage of severe is not expected to warrant a watch at this time.
DISCUSSION… A line of storms arcing southwestward across Middle TN and into western TN persists this morning, beneath moderate westerly flow aloft under a departing shortwave trough. Periodic convergent shear zones and mainly broad mesocyclones have been noted at times both with QLCS structures and individual cells.
The northern portion of the deeper showers and thunderstorms are more favorably oriented for supercells with more of a cross-line component to the deep-layer shear vector. However, these areas are also less unstable, with only low 60s temperatures and dewpoints.
A more prolonged threat perhaps will be with activity farther southwest, which is in closer proximity to a more unstable air mass emanating out of MS/AL. Although up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE exists here, low-level flow has more of a westerly component, with SRH slowly decreasing with time. Overall shear remains sufficient at this time, however, for a severe storms or two, with damaging wind or brief tornado risk. Given that the shortwave trough continues to lift away from the area, coverage of severe is expected to remain isolated, and a watch may not be needed.
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Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.
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