March 4, 2021

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Snow Showers This Evening Cold Weekend Snow Chance Monday Night Into Tuesday

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Snow Showers This Evening Cold Weekend Snow Chance Monday Night Into Tuesday

 

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Snow Showers This Evening Cold Weekend Snow Chance Monday Night Into Tuesday

A weakening cold front is moving eastward this evening and we are seeing bands of snow showers ahead of it that could move through in a few places this evening. Otherwise the story for the weekend is cold and windy at times. Skies will clear out after any snow showers get out of the way and temperatures by morning will be in the upper teens to lower 20s in most places by morning.

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Looking at the regional radars we can see those bands of snow showers moving southeastward. It is possible that somebody could get a quick whitening of the ground but for the most part we are talking about some passing flurries and by late this evening these snow showers should disappear.

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Saturday winds will pick up from the northwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. A storm to the east combining with a strong high to the west will tighten up the pressure gradient somewhat and that should last through Sunday morning. Saturday will be a cold day with temperatures just topping out in the upper 20s to lower 30s and by Sunday morning we will see lows in the mid teens to lower 20s. Sunday will be cold but eventually the wind will drop off. Sunshine with a few afternoon clouds should allow temperatures to make it back to the low to mid 30s.

Low pressure coming out of the Southern Plains will head northeast into the Ohio Valley. Then it hits the brick wall of the block and redevelops to the east. However there is a problem regarding snow. First off the block is still strong and you will notice that the precipitation hits a wall around or just north of NYC and then stops moving north and begins sliding to the east. Secondly there is the secondary low which forms well to the east of the Carolinas and moves east. The result is a disjointed looking system. The secondary developing to the east will likely weaken the snow area Monday night and Tuesday. It doesn’t completely disappear but the system remains weak and disorganized. This was never going to be a big system to begin with so right now my thinking is that this will have the potential the leave a few inches so lets call it a 1-3/2-4 inch type snow fall Monday night into Tuesday. There are still a few other issues to figure out but those numbers would be the maximum I would go with at this time. Meanwhile a follow up storm has more support and will actually  become a monster storm in the Atlantic late next week. Here too the issue is the block. The GFS is further north today but again the primary hits that brick wall. The secondary explodes offshore and moves east. On face value this would bring big snows to the areas in the Mid Atlantic states but on this run at least falls short of reaching NYC and Southern New England. Many weather model runs to go here and if the block can relax a bit this could wind up pushing further north. We will keep an eye on this over the weekend as well as the system for Monday night and Tuesday.

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Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

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