WASHINGTON — There’s a slim chance that parts of the D.C. Metro region could see some flurries or light snow Monday. Emphasis on the word slim, and here’s why.
Typically for snow, you want see a disturbance accompanied by cold air and moisture. Cold air on Monday morning? Check. Moisture on Monday? Not so much.
Simply put, low pressure will be passing near the area and with some cold air in place, this could trigger light snow and flurries for a brief moment Monday morning. However, the odds are not in our favor with this system.
If all of the ingredients come together we could see rain and snow around 2 a.m. in the southern suburbs such as Manassas, La Plata, Culpeper and Fredericksburg.
By 4 a.m., we could see a change over to light snow and flurries with flakes in Andrews, the very southern edge of D.C., Alexandria, Fredericksburg, La Plata, Culpeper.
8 a.m.: Snow and flurries start to retreat further south, we see a change over back to rain and snow along the Eastern Shore.
10 a.m.: Rain and snow mainly in Southern Maryland as system gradually moves out.
Accumulation: Dusting on the roof, grassy surfaces if any. Think “conversational” snow.
Most of the modeling favors a dry scenario with clouds and cold conditions.
The European model has been the most aggressive giving the region the most moisture for snow.
The GFS has been bone dry, along with the RPM. The NAM is also mostly dry. The GDPS has since backed off the snow potential and is now dry. Bottomline: the majority of models keep the moisture to our south.
On a scale of Low, Medium, High, at this point we think that the chance is LOW. Please check back for updates.
Here’s a look at the Euro vs the GFS modeling. You can see that the Euro has some light snow and flurries while the GFS has nothing except clouds.