April 11, 2021

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SLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER RISK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 06, 2021…7:50 EDT

6 min read

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

Once again, as credit to the SPC, I will be incorporating the SPC outlook text if needed.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the lower Mississippi Valley with other isolated severe storms possible farther north over the middle Mississippi Valley.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/Outlook-category-descriptions.png
SPC DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED FOR CURRENT TEXT)


TORNADO OUTLOOK

WIND OUTLOOK

HAIL OUTLOOK

PLEASE, refer to the SPC home page link for the DAY 1 outlook for Wed., APR. 07, 2021
SPC HOME PAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Based on information contained in the current SPC DAY 2 outlook, mixed storm modes are expected tomorrow. 50+ kts of effective bulk shear should support both line segment and supercell storms.  As we get into the afternoon and early evening hours, increasing hodographs and SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) due to the strengthening of a LLJ (Low Level Jet) will support the potential for some tornadoes.  SPC did indicate they may upgrade a portion of the outlook area to an ENHANCED risk tomorrow.  The following excerpt from the SPC outlook gives a clearer explanation:
Mixed storm modes are expected, and vertical wind profiles with 50+ kt effective bulk shear will support the potential for organized storms with both line segments and some supercell structures. Hodograph size will increase as the low-level jet strengthens with up to 300 m2/s2 storm relative helicity supportive of low-level mesocyclones and potential for a few tornadoes, especially across the lower MS Valley during the afternoon and early evening. However, the degree and extent of the tornado threat will depend on whether or not sufficient boundary layer destabilization can occur given likelihood of widespread low clouds in warms sector where forecast soundings exhibit poor low-level lapse rates.

HODOGRAPH EXPLANATION
This diagram displays the entire wind profile as a horizontal plot. Instead of the familiar wind barbs, each wind is plotted as a vector from the origin of the hodograph, and the colored lines connect the end points of the wind observations (kt). The lines connecting the end points of the wind observations represent the vertical wind shear through that layer. The color coded lines show each 3 km deep layer beginning at the surface, as shown to the left in the wind speed versus height plot. Wind directions are plotted on the standard compass headings (e.g., the “south” surface wind at 10 kt in the sample sounding is plotted above the origin (from 180 degrees) at the 10 kt range ring.

Heights above ground level (every 1 km) are marked in black along the hodograph, and the LFC-EL pressure-weighted mean wind is denoted by the brown square. Potential left- (LM) and right-moving (RM) supercell motions (based on the Bunkers technique) are marked by the black circles with cross hairs. The dark cyan lines show the bounds of the effective inflow layer on the hodograph, if present.

Based on this evening’s analysis of the NAM-WRF model from the F5 DATA Severe software, some of the severe indices analyzed were as follows:
SBCAPE: 1000-1500 j/kg
MLCAPE: 1000-1500 j/kg
LI: -4 to -6
EHI: 1-2
STP: 2-6
The following 2 links will provide some explanation of what these indices mean:
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

Although the current SPC outlook map indicates a rather expansive 5% tornado outlook, analysis of the NAM-WRF model indicate the BEST probability for the severe threat and tornado activity to occur within the outlined areas (although tornadic activity can occur over the entire SPC outline).  Once again, be aware these may change as the model updates again in the  morning, along with any changes the SPC may initiate in the next morning update to the convective outlook.
NAM WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 1:00 P.M. CDT

NAM WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 4:00 P.M. CDT

NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 7:00 P.M. CDT

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)


SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)


The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

Use the following link to see your area forecast.  Once on the site, type in your zip code in the green box:
https://www.weather.gov/iwx/fallfrostinfo
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

palmharborforecastcenter

2021-04-06 23:48:48

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