April 11, 2021

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SLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST…ISSUED APR. 05, 2021…7:50 P.M. EDT

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

Once again, as credit to the SPC, I will be incorporating the SPC outlook text if needed.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the central and eastern Kansas Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Hail and strong gusts will be the main hazards associated with this activity.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/Outlook-category-descriptions.png

Based on my analysis of the information contained in the CURRENT SPC DAY 2 outlook, and 18Z run of the NAM-WRF model through F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, it appears at the moment the main threat should be the possibility of large hail, and damaging thunderstorm winds.  The presence of a strong “CAP” or capping inversion will be ongoing throughout most of the day.  Analysis of indices in the F5 DATA information indicates the CINH (Convective INHibition) will be on the order of 150 to 300 j/kg.  This basically indicates warm moist air from the surface will only rise up to the level where the cap begins.  Although CAPE values will be moderate, and the Lifted Index moderate to high, the CINH will prohibit deep convection during most of the day.  As the cold front takes over the dryline, CINH may begin to reduce, and the atmosphere should grow somewhat more unstable.  However, weak CINH is forecast to remain near the surface, and this could keep the tornado threat low.  IF this cap is “broken” at anytime late afternoon to early evening, the tornado threat could increase as the other factors are fairly favorable, not to mention effective shear of 30+ kts, enlarged hodographs, and steep mid level lapse rates of 8.0 – 8.5 C/km.

CINH EXPLAINED:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convective_inhibition

The following indices were analyzed:
SBCAPE: 1000 – 1500 j/kg
MLCAPE: 1000 – 1500 j/kg
LIFTED INDEX: -4 to -6
CINH: 150 – 300

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

TORNADO OUTLOOK

WIND OUTLOOK

HAIL OUTLOOK

PLEASE, refer to the SPC home page link for the DAY 1 outlook for Tue., APR. 06, 2021
SPC HOME PAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Based on the latest run available (18Z) of the NAM-WRF model, the following F5 DATA maps indicate at this time, where the greatest probability of the strongest severe weather and/or tornado activity may occur.  It was noted in analysis of these maps this evening, there was a lack of significant tornado indices, indicating the low probability of tornadoes  Once again, please be aware these may change as the model updates again tonight, and 2 more times in the a.m., along with any changes the SPC may initiate in the next morning update to the convective outlook.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF 4:00 P.M. CDT

F5 DATA NAM-WRF 7:00 P.M. CDT

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)


The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

Use the following link to see your area forecast.  Once on the site, type in your zip code in the green box:
https://www.weather.gov/iwx/fallfrostinfo
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2021-04-05 23:49:37

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