February 21, 2024

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SLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK…ISSUED JAN. 27, 2024…8:50 A.M. EST

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/SPC_outlook_final_updated.png
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT risk of strong to severe thunderstorms in the current outlook: OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered severe storms are possible today mainly over parts of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and coastal Mississippi. Isolated severe storms may extend into southern Tennessee and the western Carolinas
.

SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked to current SPC outlook)
day1otlk_1200
TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1200_torn
HAIL PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1200_hail
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1200_wind
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOPPLER RADAR
SOUTHMISSVLY_loop
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Rain and heavy thunderstorms were again, already in progress this morning over MS and portions of AL.  Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, and NAM model, information derived from forecast indices indicate the most likely threat could be damaging wind gusts given the forecast of  60 – 70 kts of deep layer shear, and strong / veering winds. This combination will allow for rotating updrafts.  Analysis of various indices maps tend to indicate the strongest severe weather may be isolated to the area shown by the 5% tornado probability outline.  SCP and STP forecast maps indicate the strongest or highest probability for tornado activity is over northern AL. to the southern TN region.  Based on analysis of severe and tornado parameters and indices, CAPE is forecast to not be that substantial.  SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) and EHI (Energy Helicity Index) are on the low end, and the lifted index is weak.  Low level and mid level lapse rates are forecast to be weak.  Bottom line…any tornadoes that do develop should be weak, as the values represent only a marginally unstable environment.  Tornado threat should be more prevalent between 2:00 – 6:00 p.m. CST over the risk outlines.  The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning and pertain to the SLIGHT risk area.  Indices meanings can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 250 – 500 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 250 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 250 – 500 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 100 – 200 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 100 – 200 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 100 – 200 m2/s2

L. I.: 0 to -1
STP: 1 – 2
SCP: 1 – 3
0 -6 km SHEAR: 60 – 70 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 30 – 40 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.0C
DEWPOINT: 60F – 67F
EHI: 0.2 – 0.3
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 45 – 47C
K INDEX: 28 – 33

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity over an area:

NAM SCP FORECAST (12:00 NOON 27 JAN. – 6:00 P.M. 27 JAN.)
nam-nest-alms-supercell_comp-1706335200-1706378400-1706400000-80
NAM STP FORECAST (12:00 NOON 27 JAN. – 6:00 P.M. 27 JAN.)
nam-nest-alms-sig_tor-1706335200-1706378400-1706400000-80
The following is the most recent U.S. surface map.  You’ll note the setup over the Gulf coast currently and the forecast for tomorrow morning:
93fndfd
96fndfdAn excessive rainfall alert is in effect as well:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALERT (LINKED TO FORECAST DISCUSSION)
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ECMWF AND GFS 5 DAY TOTAL PRECIPITATION
ecmwf-deterministic-alms-total_precip_inch-6788800
gfs-deterministic-alms-total_precip_inch-6788800
WPC 5 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
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Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I have provided the SPC homepage link above, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
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RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-01-27 13:44:17

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