June 26, 2022

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SLIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISKS FOR DAY 1 AND DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOKS SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 10, 2022…6:45 P.M. EDT

8 min read

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

I am pressed for time once again this evening, so, I will once again be copying and pasting the synopsis from the SPC this evening for both today’s day 1 outlook, and tomorrow’s (day 2 outlook), though I am trying  not to make a habit of it.  Just had a very busy schedule today.  The analysis of the models and outlining of the F5 DATA maps will be my own interpretation, based on analysis of model indices.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the current DAY1 outlook: TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN OK INTO MO…NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR…

...SUMMARY...
   A few severe thunderstorms are expected tonight near and north of
   the I-44 corridor from northern Oklahoma into Missouri.  Large hail
   and damaging winds will be the main threats.
   ...20Z Update...
   Overall outlook remains on track with no changes needed.
   Recent surface analysis places a low over southwest MN with the cold
   front extending southward for the low across IA and then back
   southwestward through northwestern MO, southeast KS, and
   north-central OK. Low-level moisture continues to increase ahead of
   this front, with 60 deg F dewpoints now into North Texas and mid 50s
   into east-central OK. Thunderstorm development is still anticipated
   tonight along the front from north-central OK into central MO. steep
   midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and moderate bulk shear
   appear sufficient for supercells initially capable of producing
   large hail and damaging winds. Most of storm will likely mature
   north of the front, but just enough potential exists for a
   pre-frontal, surface-based storm to support a low probability
   tornado risk.
   ..Mosier.. 04/10/2022

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED) day1otlk_1630
TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1630_torn
HAIL PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1630_hail
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1630_wind

Based on the SPC outlook, the main threat this evening appears to be large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds.  This was supported in my analysis of severe and tornado parameters with moderate CAPE, moderate Lifted Index values, and moderate shear.  SPC indicated a low probability for a tornado risk, though forecast tornado indices I analyzed suggests there could be a better potential from early evening into late evening.

Based on analysis of forecast indices, the models suggested that severe weather should be ongoing around 7:00 p. m. CDT.  Current radar is just now showing growing shower activity.

The following outlined maps from F5 DATA NAM – WRF model solution current run, indicate where the strongest severe and tornado indices should occur.  ALL times are in CDT.  Again, always check the SPC day 1 outlook at the SPC site, as outlines and risk areas could change.  Again, the outlines surround where the model indicates the strongest indices are forecast.
F5 DATA NAM – WRF 7:00 P. M. EDT BEST TORNADO PROB
f5.torn.7pm
10:00 P. M. CDT
f5.torn.10pm
1:00 A. M. CDT 4/11
f5.torn.1am
4:00 A. M. CDT
f5.torn.4am
The following NAM 3km animations indicate the locations and strength of the forecast STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) index, and SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) index.

NAM 3km STP ANIMATION (7:00 P. M. CDT APR 10 – 4:00 A. M. EDT APR 11)
nam-nest-scentus-sig_tor-1649613600-1649635200-1649667600-80
NAM 3km SCP ANIMATION
nam-nest-scentus-supercell_comp-1649613600-1649635200-1649667600-80

STP EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP EXPLAINED
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

Please use the following maps for all days, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I am also providing the SPC homepage link, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the current DAY 2 outlook: FROM PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH…

…SUMMARY…

   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Monday into
   Monday night from parts of north-central Texas to the Mid-South and
   vicinity. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
   tornadoes all appear possible.
   ...Synopsis...
   Broadly cyclonic flow will be in place across the western and
   central CONUS early Monday. A lead shortwave trough embedded within
   this flow is expected to move from the Upper Midwest into Quebec
   while another drops through the Pacific Northwest. Heights will
   increase across the Plains in between these two shortwaves with the
   stronger westerlies shifting northward. 
   At the surface, the primary low attendant to the lead shortwave will
   move into Quebec while the northern portion of an associated front
   remains progressive as it moves eastward/northeastward across the
   Upper Great Lakes region and OH Valley. Farther south, the front
   will become less progressive and more stationary across AR.
   ...Mid-South across the Arklatex into northeast TX...
   Large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible across the region
   throughout the day, with the area potentially under the influence of
   modest height rises. As such, the overall severe risk across the
   region will depend largely on the any surface boundaries that can
   act to influence convective initiation.
   The cold front will likely remain north of eastern OK and much of
   AR, but an outflow boundary from preceding overnight storms could be
   in place across the region. Strong moisture advection throughout the
   day will likely result in at least mid 60s dewpoints in the vicinity
   of this boundary by the late afternoon. Warm mid-level temperatures
   will be in place, but daytime heating coupled with the increasing
   low-level moisture and mesoscale ascent along the boundary will
   likely result in convective initiation. There are still questions
   regarding the most probable location for initiation as well as the
   overall storm coverage, but environmental conditions support
   supercells with any robust/mature updrafts. All severe hazards are
   possible with these supercells, including tornadoes. 
   Farther west (across north-central/northeast TX), a sharpening
   dryline and weak surface low may provide the ascent needed for
   convective initiation. However, like areas farther northeast, warm
   mid-level temperatures (and resultant capping) coupled with
   negligible large-scale ascent introduce uncertainty regarding
   initiation and coverage. Primary threat with any storms that do
   develop in the afternoon/late afternoon would be very large hail.
   Veered low-level flow suggests the tornado potential should be low.
   However, surface winds are expected to back after 00Z, contributing
   to some tornado potential with any storms that are able to persist
   and/or mature during that time frame.  
   ...Mid MS/Lower OH Valley...
   Generally elevated thunderstorms along/north of the cold front may
   be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning over parts of
   MO. This activity may pose an isolated hail/wind threat as it
   spreads eastward across the mid MS Valley and into the Lower OH
   Valley throughout the day, but instability should remain rather weak
   ahead of it.
   ..Mosier.. 04/10/2022

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED TO OUTLOOK TEXT)
day2otlk_1730
TORNADO PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_1730_torn
HAIL PROBABILITY
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

day2probotlk_1730_hail
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_1730_wind
Based on analysis of information in the SPC outlook, outflow from preceding overnight activity will lead to an increase in strong moisture advection (ample moisture traveling in a horizontal manner).  It appears the atmosphere will be a little more unstable tomorrow, with a greater probability of tornadoes over the risk area (5%), and the probability of seeing large and significant hail.  Again, analysis of various indices indicates a very good chance of tornado activity within the tornado outline areas, especially within the 5% outline.

The following outlined maps from F5 DATA NAM – WRF model solution current run, indicate where the strongest severe and tornado indices should occur.  ALL times are in CDT.  Again, always check the SPC day 1 outlook at the SPC site, as outlines and risk areas could change.  Again, the outlines surround where the model indicates the strongest indices are forecast.
F5 DATA NAM – WRF 1:00 P. M. EDT BEST TORNADO PROB

f5.torn.1pm.4.11
4:00 P. M. CDT
f5.torn.4pm.4.11
7:00 P. M. CDT
f5.torn.7pm.4.11
10:00 P. M. CDT
f5.torn.10pm.4.11
Again, refer to the SPC maps posted previously for Mesoscale Discussions, Convective Watches, and NWS Hazards and Warnings map for updates to your area.

The following NAM 3km animations indicate the locations and strength of the forecast STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) index, and SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) index.
NAM 3km STP ANIMATION (1:00 P. M. EDT APR 11 – 10:00 P. M. EDT APR 11 )
nam-nest-scentus-sig_tor-1649613600-1649700000-1649732400-80
NAM 3km SCP ANIMATION
nam-nest-scentus-supercell_comp-1649613600-1649700000-1649732400-80

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-04-10 22:44:24

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