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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
Once again, as credit to the SPC, I will be incorporating the SPC outlook text if needed.
This post is for the current SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES…
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Friday into Friday night from parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast states. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes all appear possible.
Due to time constraints, I have to make this synopsis short this evening and will not be posting the severe weather and tornado indices, but I hope it still gets the point across.
Based on information contained in the current SPC DAY 2 outlook, a low will progress eastward and into central Texas by tomorrow. The combination of increasing moisture, strong veering winds with height, ample shear, steep mid level lapse rates, moderate to high severe / tornado indices, presence of the dryline, and negative tilt to the larger scale trough, will create a favorable thermodynamic atmosphere, which should allow storms that do develop, to acquire rotation quickly, with isolated supercells. These storms will have the capability to produce all of the severe threats with the probability of large hail and isolated tornadoes. I am going to post the link the day 2 outlook underneath the graphic, so you may read it in its entirety.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point
I performed analysis of the current NAM-WRF run using F5 DATA Severe Weather software. Modeling tends to indicate severe weather may be ongoing into the early morning hours of April 24. The following outlines, based on the location and coverage of the analyzed indices and parameters in the F5 DATA maps, indicates at the moment, where the HIGHEST probabilities lie for the strongest of the severe weather and tornadic activity to occur. Again, THIS MAY CHANGE as the model runs tonight and early morning, along with any changes the SPC may make to the DAY 1 Outlook. It is noted however, the the STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast from this evenings SREF model from SPC, seems to concur with the NAM-WRF output.
NAM-WRF 1:00 P.M. CDT APRIL 23
NAM-WRF 4:00 P.M. CDT APRIL 23
NAM-WRF 7:00 P.M. CDT APRIL 23
NAM-WRF 10:00 P.M. CDT APRIL 23
NAM-WRF 1:00 A.M. CDT APRIL 24
The following are the STP outlines from the SPC SREF model for the same times as the above maps (in order):
Based on the value of some of the severe parameters, I would not be surprised to see a possible upgrade to an ENHANCED risk over a portion of the SLIGHT risk area. I will not be able to update tomorrow, as I work all day tomorrow. The following maps are linked, and please refer to the SPC home page link to find current information on the DAY 1 OUTLOOK tomorrow.
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC HOME PAGE LINK
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: email@example.com
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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