May 12, 2021

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SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 22, 2021…8:00 P.M. EDT

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  Without these sites, I’m pretty much left in the dark.  The F5 Data maps I post as well for severe weather, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), are also out of pocket to me. Please keep in mind, even when the hurricane season ends, I have to keep up on these site subscriptions for severe weather and winter weather.  In all, I put out $68 a month to provide you, what I hope are accurate forecasts. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the information I use in my forecasts
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

Once again, as credit to the SPC, I will be incorporating the SPC outlook text if needed.

This post is for the current SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Friday into Friday night from parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast states. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes all appear possible.

Due to time constraints, I have to make this synopsis short this evening and will not be posting the severe weather and tornado indices, but I hope it still gets the point across.

Based on information contained in the current SPC DAY 2 outlook, a low will progress eastward and into central Texas by tomorrow.  The combination of increasing moisture, strong veering winds with height, ample shear, steep mid level lapse rates, moderate to high severe / tornado indices, presence of the dryline, and negative tilt to the larger scale trough, will create a favorable thermodynamic atmosphere, which should allow storms that do develop, to acquire rotation quickly, with isolated supercells.  These storms will have the capability to produce all of the severe threats with the probability of large hail and isolated tornadoes.  I am going to post the link the day 2 outlook underneath the graphic, so you may read it in its entirety.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_1730
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
TORNADO

day2probotlk_1730_torn
WIND
day2probotlk_1730_wind
HAIL
day2probotlk_1730_hail
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point
I performed analysis of the current NAM-WRF run using F5 DATA Severe Weather software.  Modeling tends to indicate severe weather may be ongoing into the early morning hours of April 24.  The following outlines, based on the location and coverage of the analyzed indices and parameters in the F5 DATA maps, indicates at the moment, where the HIGHEST probabilities lie for the strongest of the severe weather and tornadic activity to occur.  Again, THIS MAY CHANGE as the model runs tonight and early morning, along with any changes the SPC may make to the DAY 1 Outlook.  It is noted however, the the STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast from this evenings SREF model from SPC, seems to concur with the NAM-WRF output.
NAM-WRF 1:00 P.M. CDT APRIL 23
f5torn.1pm
NAM-WRF 4:00 P.M. CDT APRIL 23
f5torn.4pm
f5torn.4pm.2
NAM-WRF 7:00 P.M. CDT APRIL 23
f5torn.7pm
NAM-WRF 10:00 P.M. CDT APRIL 23
f5torn.10pm
NAM-WRF 1:00 A.M. CDT APRIL 24
f5torn.1am
The following are the STP outlines from the SPC SREF model for the same times as the above maps (in order):
SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f027
SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f030
SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f033
SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f036SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f039

Based on the value of some of the severe parameters, I would not be surprised to see a possible upgrade to an ENHANCED risk over a portion of the SLIGHT risk area.  I will not be able to update tomorrow, as I work all day tomorrow.  The following maps are linked, and please refer to the SPC home page link to find current information on the DAY 1 OUTLOOK tomorrow.
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)


SPC HOME PAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2021-04-23 00:00:44

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