April 11, 2021

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SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 23, 2021…7:50 P.M. EDT

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  Without these sites, I’m pretty much left in the dark.  The F5 Data maps I post as well for severe weather, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), are also out of pocket to me. Please keep in mind, even when the hurricane season ends, I have to keep up on these site subscriptions for severe weather and winter weather.  In all, I put out $68 a month to provide you, what I hope are accurate forecasts. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the information I use in my forecasts
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

The SPC has issued a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains, mainly from Wednesday evening into the overnight.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAP (LINKED FOR SPC OUTLOOK TEXT)



Analysis this evening of the SPC DAY 2 outlook, and current NAM-WRF maps of the most recent run, indicate the heavier or more significant severe threat should occur beginning early in the evening on Wednesday, and continue through the overnight hours over the ArkLaTex region.  Surface Based and Mixed Layer CAPE values, combined with 45 to 55 knots or greater of bulk shear, and L. I. (Lifted Indices) on the order of -4 to -6 and somewhat steep lapse rates of 7.5C/km, indicate a very good probability of large hail.  Based on EHI values of 1 to 2, and STP values in excess of 4 – 5, limited tornado activity is likely as well.

Some of the indices analyzed were as follows:

SWEAT: 375 – 425
SBCAPE: 1000 – 2000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 1000 _ 1500 j/kg
L. I.: -4 to -6
700 – 500 mb LAPSE RATE: 7.5C/km
The following 2 links will provide some explanation of what these indices mean:
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

The following F5 DATA MAPS have been outlined, based on the above parameters, and currently indicate where the strongest of the severe weather and tornado activity could occur.   Again, some changes could be made tomorrow morning as the DAY 2 outlook transitions into the DAY 1 outlook.  PLEASE, refer to the SPC home page tomorrow for the DAY 1 outlook for any changes that may have occurred overnight and in new model runs, and PLEASE use my site again, to keep track of any tornado watches, and Doppler radar updates, as well as the NWS Warnings map for up to date statements.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF MODEL 7:00 P.M. CDT


F5 DATA NAM-WRF MODEL 10:00 P.M. CDT

F5 DATA NAM-WRF MODEL 1:00 A.M. CDT 25MAR2021

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)


SPC HOME PAGE LINK

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)


Use the following link to see your area forecast.  Once on the site, type in your zip code in the green box:
https://www.weather.gov/iwx/fallfrostinfo
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

palmharborforecastcenter

2021-03-23 23:55:24

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