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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
The SPC has issued a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains, mainly from Wednesday evening into the overnight.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAP (LINKED FOR SPC OUTLOOK TEXT)
Analysis this evening of the SPC DAY 2 outlook, and current NAM-WRF maps of the most recent run, indicate the heavier or more significant severe threat should occur beginning early in the evening on Wednesday, and continue through the overnight hours over the ArkLaTex region. Surface Based and Mixed Layer CAPE values, combined with 45 to 55 knots or greater of bulk shear, and L. I. (Lifted Indices) on the order of -4 to -6 and somewhat steep lapse rates of 7.5C/km, indicate a very good probability of large hail. Based on EHI values of 1 to 2, and STP values in excess of 4 – 5, limited tornado activity is likely as well.
Some of the indices analyzed were as follows:
SWEAT: 375 – 425
SBCAPE: 1000 – 2000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 1000 _ 1500 j/kg
L. I.: -4 to -6
700 – 500 mb LAPSE RATE: 7.5C/km
The following 2 links will provide some explanation of what these indices mean:
The following F5 DATA MAPS have been outlined, based on the above parameters, and currently indicate where the strongest of the severe weather and tornado activity could occur. Again, some changes could be made tomorrow morning as the DAY 2 outlook transitions into the DAY 1 outlook. PLEASE, refer to the SPC home page tomorrow for the DAY 1 outlook for any changes that may have occurred overnight and in new model runs, and PLEASE use my site again, to keep track of any tornado watches, and Doppler radar updates, as well as the NWS Warnings map for up to date statements.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF MODEL 7:00 P.M. CDT
F5 DATA NAM-WRF MODEL 10:00 P.M. CDT
F5 DATA NAM-WRF MODEL 1:00 A.M. CDT 25MAR2021
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC HOME PAGE LINK
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)
Use the following link to see your area forecast. Once on the site, type in your zip code in the green box:
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed weekend!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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