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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good morning everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the current DAY 1 outlook: ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…
Severe thunderstorm gusts and large hail are expected across mainly central parts of the Florida Peninsula today.
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED TO OUTLOOK TEXT)
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY
Based on analysis of the current SPC DAY 1 Outlook, multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over portions of the Florida peninsula today. Based on my analysis of forecast parameters and indices this morning, the strongest activity appears to be confined to the central Florida Peninsula today, with the NAM and NAM – WRF models indicating the strongest activity to occur between 2:00 p. m. EDT until 8:00 p. m. EDT. Based on model analysis, the severe threat should wane after late afternoon, but more toward early evening…pretty much after daytime heating ceases.
Upon analysis of the NAM – WRF model from F5 DATA this morning, and the NAM 3km model, there are some discrepancies as to exactly where the strongest indices will be experienced, however the outlines in the F5 DATA NAM – WRF maps do tend to follow the STP outlines of the recent SPC SREF forecast model . Based on the NAM – WRF solution, the model targets the GOMEX, which would indicate the threat of waterspout activity, and the West Central Florida area (limited extent). The NAM 3km output indicates a band type area, and favors the central east coast of the state. Based on the fact that the current system over the north central GOMEX should evolve into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) as it approaches the Florida west coast, I contend that the strongest storms should target the West Central Florida Coast early afternoon until late afternoon, and the Florida east coastal area beginning late afternoon to early evening, hence I believe a blend of both models is in order. The following link provides explanations of various thunderstorm types, which includes the MCS:
Based on my analysis of the various severe and tornado indices, I do not expect at the moment, to see any strong or significant tornado activity and any activity should be marginal. Based on the out look graphics, the main threat appears to be strong straight line winds, and the possibility of isolated large hail. This seems reasonable with analyzed forecast lifted indices of -4 to -6, strong mid to upper level winds, effective shear of 35 – 45 kts, SBCAPE of 1500 – 2000 j/kg, and forecast MLCAPE of 1500 – 2500 j/kg, providing substantial lift and updrafts.
Based on the NAM – WRF solution, which was from 06Z (2:00 a. m. EDT), the following white outlined areas indicate where the best probability for tornadoes to occur. Be aware, that these outlines could change on the next model update from the 12Z run, which has not update as of the time of this synopsis.
F5 DATA NAM – WRF 2:00 P. M. EDT BEST TORNADO PROB
2:00 P. M. EDT SBCAPE VALUES
5:00 P. M. EDT BEST TORNADO PROB
F5 DATA 8:00 P. M. EDT BEST TORNADO PROB
The following NAM 3km animations indicate the locations and strength of the forecast STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) index, and SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) index.
A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
NAM 3km STP ANIMATION (2:00 P. M. EDT APR 02 – 9:00 P. M. EDT APR 02)
NAM 3km SCP ANIMATION
SPC 09Z SREF MODEL RUN SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER MEDIAN
Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches. You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics. I am also providing the SPC homepage link, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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