June 27, 2022

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SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 02, 2022…10:00 A. M. EDT

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good morning everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the current DAY 1 outlook: ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA… 

…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorm gusts and large hail are expected across mainly central parts of the Florida Peninsula today.
Outlook-category-descriptions
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED TO OUTLOOK TEXT)
day1otlk_1300
TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_torn
HAIL PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_hail
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_wind
Based on analysis of the current SPC DAY 1 Outlook, multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over portions of the Florida peninsula today.  Based on my analysis of forecast parameters and indices this morning, the strongest activity appears to be confined to the central Florida Peninsula today, with the NAM and NAM – WRF models indicating the strongest activity to occur between 2:00 p. m. EDT until 8:00 p. m. EDT.  Based on model analysis, the severe threat should wane after late afternoon, but more toward early evening…pretty much after daytime heating ceases.

Upon analysis of the NAM – WRF model from F5 DATA this morning, and the NAM 3km model, there are some discrepancies as to exactly where the strongest indices will be experienced, however the outlines in the F5 DATA NAM – WRF maps do tend to follow the STP outlines of the recent SPC SREF forecast model .  Based on the NAM – WRF solution, the model targets the GOMEX, which would indicate the threat of waterspout activity, and the West Central Florida area (limited extent).  The NAM 3km output indicates a band type area, and favors the central east coast of the state.  Based on the fact that the current system over the north central GOMEX should evolve into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) as it approaches the Florida west coast, I contend that the strongest storms should target the West Central Florida Coast early afternoon until late afternoon, and the Florida east coastal area beginning late afternoon to early evening, hence I believe a blend of both models is in order.  The following link provides explanations of various thunderstorm types, which includes the MCS:
https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/thunderstorms/types/

Based on my analysis of the various severe and tornado indices, I do not expect at the moment, to see any strong or significant tornado activity and any activity should be marginal.  Based on the out look graphics, the main threat appears to be strong straight line winds, and the possibility of isolated large hail.  This seems reasonable with analyzed forecast lifted indices of -4 to -6, strong mid to upper level winds, effective shear of 35 – 45 kts, SBCAPE of 1500 – 2000 j/kg, and forecast MLCAPE of 1500 – 2500 j/kg, providing substantial lift and updrafts.

Based on the NAM – WRF solution, which was from 06Z (2:00 a. m. EDT), the following white outlined areas indicate where the best probability for tornadoes to occur.  Be aware, that these outlines could change on the next model update from the 12Z run, which has not update as of the time of this synopsis.
F5 DATA NAM – WRF 2:00 P. M. EDT BEST TORNADO PROB
f5.torn.2pm.
2:00 P. M. EDT SBCAPE VALUES
f5.torn.2pm.cape

5:00 P. M. EDT BEST TORNADO PROB
f5.torn.5pm
f5.torn.5pm2
F5 DATA 8:00 P. M. EDT BEST TORNADO PROB
f5.torn.8pm
The following NAM 3km animations indicate the locations and strength of the forecast STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) index, and SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) index.

STP EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP EXPLAINED
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
NAM 3km STP ANIMATION (2:00 P. M. EDT APR 02 – 9:00 P. M. EDT APR 02)

nam-nest-florida-sig_tor-1648879200-1648922400-1648947600-80

NAM 3km SCP ANIMATION
nam-nest-florida-supercell_comp-1648879200-1648922400-1648947600-80
SPC 09Z SREF MODEL RUN SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER MEDIAN
SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f009
SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f012
SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f015

Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I am also providing the SPC homepage link, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-04-02 13:58:24

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