SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 16, 2022…11:10 A. M. EDT5 min read
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the current DAY 1 outlook: FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL…
The densest corridor of severe-thunderstorm potential today appears to be from southern Arkansas to southern Alabama. More-isolated and/or marginal severe weather is possible elsewhere from parts of south Texas to the coastal Carolinas.
CURRENT SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY
Based on analysis of the SPC outlook, the main threat for today appears to be damaging winds and possibly some large hail. Forecast effective shear, and cape values of 1500 – 2500 should support this, along with mixed convective modes (loosely organized supercells / QLCS bowing echos). The tornado threat is projected to be low at only 2% probability.
Based on this, and my analysis of various tornado indices using the F5 DATA NAM-WRF model, and the NAM 3km mesoscale model, the following outlines in the F5 DATA maps indicate where the best probability for tornadic activity to occur. This is based on where analyzed indices overlap on the maps.
STP, SCP, VGP and EHI values were analyzed to be low to moderate.
A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
VGP: The VGP (Vorticity Generation Parameter) is meant to estimate the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft. Values greater than 0.2 m s-2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms.
The following sites will explain most of these values, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
THE WEATHER PREDICTION
Both F5 DATA, NAM 3km, and SPC SREF models show activity diminishing after 4:00 p. m. CDT, close to 7:00 p. m. CDT. Models indicated the severe weather should be ongoing as I am typing this synopsis.
F5 DATA NAM – WRF 10:00 A. M. CDT
1:00 P. M. CDT
4:00 P. M. CDT
The following NAM 3km animations indicate the locations and strength of the forecast STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) index, and SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) index.
NAM 3km STP ANIMATION (10:00 A. M. CDT APR 16 – 7:00 P. M. CDT APR 16)
NAM 3km SCP ANIMATION
Please use the following maps for all days, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches. You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics. I am also providing the SPC homepage link, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
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Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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