SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR.06, 2022…8:00 P. M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

Sorry I missed everyone last night.  As I sat down to perform an analysis and post my synopsis, I became ill, with dizziness and a queasy stomach, and was unable to provide a synopsis.  I am pressed for time this evening, and though I do not like doing it, I will be copying and pasting the synopsis from the SPC this evening (day 2 outlook).  The analysis of the models and outlining of the F5 DATA maps will be my own interpretation.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the current DAY 2 outlook: ACROSS EASTERN NC AND SOUTHEAST VA…AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA…

...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across
   eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia, as well as across
   portions of the Florida Peninsula. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and a
   couple of tornadoes will be possible.
   ...Synopsis...
   A deep upper-level trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS
   is forecast to shift slowly eastward on Thursday, as an associated
   deep-layer cyclone meanders near the Great Lakes region. A cold
   front will sweep eastward across parts of the Mid Atlantic and
   Southeast through the day, and advance through most of the FL
   Peninsula by Friday morning. 
   ...Eastern NC into the Tidewater Region of VA...
   Rich low-level moisture will spread into portions of eastern NC and
   southeast VA during the day on Thursday, in conjunction with a
   northward-moving warm front and a frontal wave that is expected to
   move eastward from western NC/VA toward the Tidewater vicinity by
   early evening. While the stronger large-scale ascent will likely be
   displaced north and west of the region during the day, the
   environment along/ahead of the cold front is forecast to become
   moderately unstable (MLCAPE > 1000 J/kg) and weakly capped by late
   morning/early afternoon, and a gradual increase in thunderstorm
   coverage and intensity is possible by mid/late afternoon. 
   With rather strong midlevel southwesterly flow in place ahead of the
   upper trough, effective shear of 40+ kt is expected across the warm
   sector, which will support the potential for a few supercells and/or
   organized clusters. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be
   possible with the strongest storms. A couple of tornadoes will also
   be possible, especially near the warm front and surface wave where
   low-level shear may be somewhat enhanced. 
   ...FL Peninsula...
   Convection may be ongoing Thursday morning along a pre-frontal
   trough extending across the northern FL Peninsula. Additional
   thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of this activity by
   late morning/early afternoon, as moderate to locally strong buoyancy
   develops within a very warm and moist environment. Depending on the
   influence of the morning pre-frontal convection, redevelopment is
   also possible along the primary cold front during the afternoon. 
   Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of
   40+ kt, supporting the potential for a few organized clusters and/or
   supercells. Large hail and locally strong/damaging wind gusts are
   expected to be the primary hazard, though low-level shear may be
   sufficient to support the threat for a tornado or two as well.

   ..Dean.. 04/06/2022

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED TO OUTLOOK TEXT)
TORNADO PROBABILITY
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

HAIL PROBABILITY

DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY

Based on analysis of the SPC  DAY 2 outlook, in short, as we get into the later afternoon tomorrow, the atmosphere is forecast to become more unstable within the risk area over NC/VA, based on analysis of severe and tornado indices becoming stronger, with MLCAPE values in excess of 1000 j/kg, with the weak cap being eroded.  SBCAPE was analyzed to be 1500 – 2000 j/kg and lifted indices of -4 to -6.

For FLA. indices indicate severe weather could initiate early in the a. m., and continue into a smaller area by afternoon.  Analysis of the indices indicates the severe weather should begin to push offshore by early evening over both risk areas, sometime between 6:00 p. m. and 8:00 p. m. EDT.

The following sites will explain most of the severe and tornado indices values, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

The following outlined maps from F5 DATA NAM – WRF model solution current run, indicate where the strongest severe and tornado indices should occur.  ALL times are in EDT.  Again, always check the SPC day 1 outlook at the SPC site, as outlines and risk areas could change.
F5 DATA NAM – WRF 8:00 A. M. EDT BEST TORNADO PROB


11:00 A. M. EDT


2:00 P. M.


5:00 P. M.

The following NAM 3km animations indicate the locations and strength of the forecast STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) index, and SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) index.
NAM 3km STP ANIMATION (8:00 A. M. EDT APR 07 – 7:00 P. M. EDT APR 07)

NAM 3km SCP ANIMATION

STP EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP EXPLAINED
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

Please use the following maps for all days, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I am also providing the SPC homepage link, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST