January 27, 2023

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SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 17, 2023…8:15 P.M. EST

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms for PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are possible from far east Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Wednesday.

SPC DAY 2 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (THIS MAP LINKED)
day2otlk_1730
TORNADO
day2probotlk_1730_torn
HAIL
day2probotlk_1730_hail
DAMAGING WINDS
day2probotlk_1730_wind
SPC_outlook_final_updated
Based on my analysis in part of the SPC outlook text, and numerous forecast severe weather and tornado indices,it appears the main severe threat may be damaging winds in the form of  thunderstorm gusts and straight-line winds.  In the morning hours, a cap (inversion) should be present, and should limit supercell activity.  During the afternoon hours however, as daytime heating occurs, the atmosphere will become a little more buoyant and a little more unstable.  Given the presence of a 100 kt mid level (500 mb) jetstreak, (which will place the slight risk area within the right rear entrance region) and effective shear of 40 – 50 kts, the atmosphere will support organized supercells, and the probability for some tornado activity.  Right now, based on my analysis of current parameters and indices, I am not expecting any significant/strong tornadoes.  Any hail that may occur should not be severe, given the lack of any strong lifting in the forecast indices.  Bear in mind again, that conditions can change between now, and when the severe weather begins, as we saw with the last severe episode.  The area for Alabama eastward, was initially a SLIGHT risk area.  From the time of the synopsis I issued, until the next forecast day, the area was upgraded to a MODERATE risk, as some of the severe indices and parameters had strengthened overnight, into the day 1 outlook.  I do advise visiting the SPC main site in case anything changes that could increase instability during the day tomorrow. 

The following forecast indices and parameters were observed in analysis this evening for the risk area:
SBCAPE: 500 – 1000+ j/kg-1

MLCAPE: 500 – 750+ j/kg-1
SRH: 200 – 300 m2/s2
L. I.: -1 to -3
STP: 1 to 2
SCP: 1 to 3
EFF. SHEAR: 40 – 50 KTS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.0 – 7.5C
DEW POINT: 62F – 68F
REL. HUMIDITY: 85 – 95%

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following sites will explain most of these values, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

Currently, the main threat window for the SLIGHT risk area appears to be approximately 12:00 p.m. CST, with activity and strength diminishing during the evening (after sunset).  Please visit the SPC main site at the following link for tomorrows activity:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

The following are animations of both the SCP and STP currently for tomorrow, however slight changes are possible between now and tomorrows model runs.  The animation runs from 12:00 noon to 12:00 midnight CST.  The greater the value, the greater the risk to an area.
NAM MODEL SCP FORECAST
nam-nest-alms-supercell_comp-1673978400-1674064800-1674108000-80
NAM MODEL STP FORECAST
nam-nest-alms-sig_tor-1673978400-1674064800-1674108000-80
The following maps from the SPC SREF model gives an indication where the greatest threat for tornadoes may occur, along with the strongest tornadoes:
SPC SREF STP PROBABILITY >1 12:00 NOON CST
SREF_prob_sigtor_1__f027
3:00 P.M. CST
SREF_prob_sigtor_1__f030
6:00 P.M. CST
SREF_prob_sigtor_1__f033
Please visit my site again for the severe event to use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I am also providing the SPC homepage link, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2023-01-18 01:03:17

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