December 8, 2022

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SLIGHT AND ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISKS FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 03, 2022…2:10 P. M. EDT

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

I am going to try and make this short and to the point, as we have a severe risk today, and one for Monday.  Since I work Mon. – Fri., I have to also work up a synopsis for tomorrow’s severe weather, which will currently be the day 2 outlook.  Given the work week, when I post in the evenings, the synopsis on any given night, will be for the day 2 outlook.  This is why I mention for my readers, to use the SPC website link so they may view the outlook when it becomes day 1, as conditions can change overnight.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the current DAY 1 outlook: OVER PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Isolated severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are expected across parts of southwest Oklahoma into western Texas this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong to marginally severe storms are also possible across the southern Florida Peninsula.

Outlook-category-descriptions
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED TO OUTLOOK TEXT)
TORNADO PROBABILITY

HAIL PROBABILITY

DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY

Based in part of analysis of the SPC DAY 1 Convective Outlook, the main threat over the slight risk area this afternoon, into early morning hours, appears to be the probability of hail, and damaging thunderstorm gusts.  Based on my analysis of various tornado and severe weather indices, values for tornado development were not present in analysis of the F5 DATA NAM – WRF model, nor in the NAM 3km model.  Some of the parameters such as EHI (Energy Helicity Index), STP (Significant Tornado Parameter), etc. were either not present, or negligible.  Based on the SPC outlook and analysis of various upper air wind maps, mid level winds are currently zonal.  However, other indices such as the Parcel Lifted Index, SBCAPE / MLCAPE, Theta-E, and Effective Shear Values, will provide enough energy / lift to produce enough updraft and downdraft for isolated large hail, and damaging thunderstorm winds.  SPC indicates supercellular thunderstorms of the LP (Low Precipitation) type.

Thunderstorm activity may be ongoing eastward of the outlook area in the early morning hours from outflow boundaries associated with the late afternoon and evening activity.

The following outlined maps from F5 DATA NAM – WRF model indicate where the model solution indicates the strongest indices for supercell development will occur.  Analysis of indices suggests supercells to develop around 4:00 p. m. CDT, through 10:00 p. m. CDT.  Based on the NAM – WRF, and NAM 3km model, indices begin to weaken thereafter.  However, there is an outlier in the SPC SREF model, indicating at least a 70% – 90% probability of SCP values greater than one, around 1:00 a.m. CDT on 03/04/22.
F5 DATA NAM – WRF 4:00 P. M. CDT BEST SCP PROB

7:00 P. M. CDT BEST SCP PROB

10:00 P. M. CDT SCP BEST PROB

STORM PREDICTION CENTER SREF SOLUTION 1:00 A. M. CDT 03/04/22


The following NAM 3km animation indicates the locations and strength of the forecast SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) index.
NAM 3km SCP ANIMATION (4:00 P. M. EDT APR 03 – 1:00 A. M. EDT APR 04)

Upon performing analysis for the DAY 2 Outlook, I had the gut feeling, and sure enough, SPC upgraded to an enhanced risk for tomorrow.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued an ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the current DAY 2 outlook: FROM NORTH TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…

…SPC SUMMARY…
A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist Monday across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes will all be possible.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED TO OUTLOOK TEXT)

TORNADO PROBABILITY

HAIL PROBABILITY

DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY
Based on analysis of the SPC DAY 2 Outlook, instability will change tomorrow, late afternoon, due to some changing thermodynamics.  Based on analysis of the NAM – WRF and NAM 3km model forecasts  SBCAPE, MLCAPE, Lifted indices, EHI, STP, and Mid Level Lapse rates will support all severe threats tomorrow.

Based on the SPC DAY 2 Outlook, elevated thunderstorm activity may be ongoing along the boundary of the stalled front.  This activity is forecast to move eastward and dissipate through the morning.

Based on the forecast of increased instability during the late afternoon, discrete supercells may develop into another QLCS (Quasi Linear Convective System), capable of producing hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.  Right now, in general, I am not seeing strong or significant tornado development, however based on the increase of the STP and SWEAT values during the evening, I cannot safely rule out a brief, isolated strong tornado occurring.

The following outlined maps from F5 DATA NAM – WRF model indicate where the model solution indicates where the strongest indices for  severe weather and tornadoes will occur.  Analysis of indices suggests the severe threat to initiate around 4:00 p. m. CDT, through 1:00 a. m. CDT 03/05/22.  Based on the NAM – WRF, and NAM 3km model, indices begin to weaken thereafter. 
F5 DATA NAM – WRF 4:00 P. M. CDT BEST TORNADO PROB

7:00 P. M. CDT

10:00 P. M. CDT

1:00 A. M. CDT 03/05/22

The following NAM 3km animations indicate the locations and strength of the forecast STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) index, and SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) index.

STP EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP EXPLAINED
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
NAM 3km STP ANIMATION (4:00 P. M. CDT APR 04 – 1:00 A. M. CDT APR 05)

NAM 3km SCP ANIMATION
Please use the following maps for all days, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I am also providing the SPC homepage link, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-04-03 18:10:25

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