April 17, 2021

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SHORT TERM WINTER WEATHER UPDATE…ISSUED DEC. 26, 2020…7:50 P.M. EST

4 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

Good evening,
This update will be based on a short term forecast for the next 48 hours.

Based on analysis this evening of the recent run of MSLP normalized anomaly maps, another low pressure system is forecast to develop in the central portion of the U.S., and track ENE across portions of the extreme upper midwest, and eventually into Canada by 48 hours into the forecast period, early on the morning of 28 Dec.  Winter precipitation and snow appear to be limited to the Wisconsin area, and ENE, north of the Great Lakes region.  Given this low is not forecast to become very strong, surface wind speeds should be much less than the previous 2 systems we have seen.  Another system is forecast to form by sometime Wed. to early Thur. near the same location, and moving in basically the same direction, however once this low moves north of the area, a second, stronger low is forecast to move up from the south, beginning over the Gulf coast states.  I will try to address this in another forecast later on.

Arctic air will continue to push south, until high pressure builds over the east and changes the surface wind flow.

The following MSLP anomaly maps will allow you to view the progress of the current system
ECMWF

GFS

The following are forecast snowfall totals for the 72 hour forecast period, ending 12Z, 29 Dec.
ECMWF

GFS

The following is the current 48 hour surface wind forecast:
ECMWF

GFS

The following are 48 hour forecast temperatures from the ECMWF and GFS:
ECMWF

GFS

FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK FOR DEC. 27, 2020

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

Once I can get a break from these winter systems, I intend to analyze things and issue a preliminary 2021 hurricane season outlook.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 



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