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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
This forecast is going to be just a little different this evening, and very graphics intense. First, let me begin by stating, based on the information contained in the current DAY 2 Outlook from the SPC, and based on analysis of various severe weather indices, the forecast severe weather outbreak could become a DANGEROUS SITUATION, AND POSSIBLY DEADLY, if forecast trends are maintained or enhanced. I will be embedding the link for the current DAY 2 outlook in the DAY 2 outlook graphic,…I HIGHLY RECOMMEND YOU READ IT IN ITS ENTIRETY…IT COULD SAVE YOUR LIFE if you are within the ENHANCED and MODERATE risk areas. It is noted in the most recent update of this outlook, if forecast conditions and severe indicators are maintained, or become stronger, the SPC has considered issuing a HIGH risk over the affected area. I had mentioned this possibility last night in my severe alert.
The SPC has issued A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS…NORTHEAST LOUISIANA…SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA…
AN ENHANCED RISK AREA, SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK AREA
A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected Wednesday into Wednesday night across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into Alabama. Widespread severe storms capable of producing tornadoes (several of which may be intense), very large hail and intense damaging wind gusts are expected. More than one round of severe storms are possible across parts of Mississippi into Alabama during the afternoon into the overnight hours.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (PLEASE CLICK THIS GRAPHIC TO ACCESS THE OUTLOOK TEXT)
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Based on analysis of the SPC outlook text, a widespread, regional severe wetaher outbreak will occur Wednesday, into Wednesday night, and continuing into the overnight hours. Supercells in association with this outbreak will be capable of producing intense, long live tornadoes, very large hail, and in tense damaging thunderstorm gusts and damaging straight line winds. This is based on information in the outlook regarding severe indices, as well as analysis of parameters and indices of the current NAM-WRF Mesoscale model run through F5 Severe Weather software. The indices that were shown in the F5 DATA, pretty much match the SPC, with only a slight difference in values. In short terms, we are looking at a forecast setup to where strong shear of 30 – 40 kts will be in place, helicity of 250+, enlarged low level hodographs, along with strong lifted indices etc., (basically, this means there is enough turning in the atmosphere, as well as tilt, so storms can maintain themselves for long periods, and strong “lift”, to lift small hailstones back up through the storms several times, until they become heavy enough to overcome the very unstable conditions to be able to fall to the ground) which all indicate favorable conditions for strong tornadoes, and very large hail.
Residents in the severe risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and follow NWS Statements and Warnings.
I will be posting the links again to 2 of the indices pages, so you may see what each value I am going to post, means. The following indices and parameters were noted in analysis of F5 DATA software:
SBCAPE: 1500 – 2500 j/Kg
MLCAPE: 1500 – 2000 j/Kg
LIFTED INDEX: -6 to -8
LAPSE RATE: 7.5 – 8.0 C/km
STP: 3 – 15 (10 AM CST) / 2 – 10 (1 PM CST WITHIN THE ENHANCED AND MODERATE RISK)
EHI: 1 – 5
SWEAT: 350 – 475
The following 2 links will provide some explanation of what these indices mean:
It was noted in the NAM-WRF model, that indices begin to decline after 7:00 p.m. CDT in the current run
The following F5 DATA MAPS have been outlined, based on the above parameters, and currently indicate where the strongest of the severe weather could occur. Albeit the conditions may occur within the ENHANCED and MODERATE outlook areas, the white outline indicates where the best probability for the above mentioned weather phenomenon to occur, with the red outlines tending to indicate where the strongest indices were located in this evenings analysis. Again, as stated, some changes could be made tomorrow morning as the DAY 2 outlook transitions into the DAY 1 outlook. PLEASE, refer to the SPC home page tomorrow for the DAY 1 outlook for any changes that may have occurred overnight and in new model runs.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF MODEL 1:00 P.M. CDT
F5 DATA NAM-WRF MODEL 4:00 P.M. CDT
F5 DATA NAM-WRF 7:00 P.M. CDT
F5 DATA NAM-WRF MODEL 10:00 P.M. CDT
F5 DATA NAM-WRF MODEL 1:00 A.M. CDT 3/18
F5 DATA NAM-WRF MODEL 4:00 A.M. CDT 3/18
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC HOME PAGE LINK
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)
Use the following link to see your area forecast. Once on the site, type in your zip code in the green box:
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed weekend!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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