February 21, 2024

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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED JAN. 10, 2024…2:15 P.M. EST

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/SPC_outlook_final_updated.pngThe Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a
SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms in the current day 2 outlook: THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night into Friday morning from central and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong gusts, and tornadoes are the primary severe threats.
SPC DAY 2 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked to current SPC outlook)
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TORNADO PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_0700_torn
HAIL PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_0700_hail
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
day2probotlk_0700_wind
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, and NAM model, information derived from forecast indices indicate the most likely threat could be damaging wind gusts given the forecast of a 50 – 60 kts 850 mb jet, with a 90 – 110 kt 500 mb jet.  Having analyzed the 500 mb jetstreak, the risk area will be under the effect of the left exit region, which promotes upper level divergence.  Based on the strong deep layer shear, moderate storm relative helicity and jetstreak forecast, tornado activity is a good probability in the slight risk outline.  SPC indicates storm initiation to occur Thursday evening around 03Z – 06Z (9:00 p.m. – midnight CST) and be ongoing overnight.  Primary storm mode may be linear (QLCS), however isolated cellular development could occur ahead of the squall line.  The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning and are preliminary:
SBCAPE: 500 – 750 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 250 – 750 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 250 – 750 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 300 – 400 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 400 – 500 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 200 – 400 m2/s2

L. I.: -1 to -4
STP: 1 – 4
SCP: 4 – 6
EFF. SHEAR: 40 – 50 kts
0 -6 km SHEAR: 70 – 90 kts

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.5 – 7.0C
DEWPOINT: 60F – 65F
EHI: 0.7 – 2.0
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 43 – 46C
K INDEX: 26 – 34

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity over an area:

NAM SCP FORECAST (9:00 p.m. 11 JAN. – 6:00 a.m. 12 JAN.)
nam-nest-central-supercell_comp-1704888000-1705028400-1705060800-80
NAM STP FORECAST (9:00 p.m. 11 JAN. – 6:00 a.m. 12 JAN.)
nam-nest-central-sig_tor-1704888000-1705028400-1705060800-80
Given the low CAPE values, there is another map I’m posting which is utilized during low buoyancy.  It’s referred to as SHERB (Severe Hazards in Environments with Reduced Buoyancy).  Based on this parameter, areas under values of 1.0+ have a more likely probability of experiencing significant severe weather.  This map is also preliminary, as parameter and indices values could change between now and tomorrows updated information:
SHERB MAP
S
SHERBnam212F045

SHERBnam212F048
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Elsewhere, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an ENHANCED risk for severe thunderstorms in the day 3 outlook: FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening.

As more accurate updates of forecast parameters materialize, I will be including this in my updates. 
SPC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
day3otlk_0830
day3prob_0830
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
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RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

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2024-01-10 19:08:10

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