Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational. This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
Today’s synopsis will focus on the MARGINAL severe weather risk for the day 2 outlook. The activity in the outlook will continue to shift toward the east, and affect the Florida peninsula as shown in the day 3 outlook.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a MARGINAL risk of severe thunderstorms in the current day 2 outlook:
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA…MISSISSIPPI…ALABAMA…AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
SPC DAY 2 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked)
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, and NAM model, information derived from forecast indices indicate the most likely threat could be weak tornado activity and damaging wind gusts from any discrete cells that may evolve. Based on the strong deep layer shear, and moderate to strong storm relative helicity, isolated, weak tornado activity COULD occur. However, in my professional opinion, based on the low confidence of how far inland ample moisture might extend, and lack of any significant forecast CAPE, lifted indices, moderately dry dew points, SCP and STP indices remaining offshore, I believe at the moment, the tornado threat to be on the low end. This is most likely why the SPC has only issued a 2% probability. Given that the forecast maps indicate the SCP and STP indices remain offshore and over the GOMEX, it is possible for isolated waterspouts to materialize. The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning:
SBCAPE: 0 – 500 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 250 – 500 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 250 – 750 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 200 – 300 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 400 – 500 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 200 – 400 m2/s2
L. I.: 0
EFF. SHEAR: 30 – 40 kts
0 -6 km SHEAR: 60 – 70 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.0 – 6.5C
DEWPOINT: 51F – 58F
EHI: 0.6 – 1.0
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 48C
K INDEX: 34 – 38
STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model
NAM SCP FORECAST (12:00 NOON – 9:00 P.M. 05 JAN.)
NAM STP FORECAST (12:00 NOON – 9:00 P.M. 05 JAN.)
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
THE WEATHER PREDICTION
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
Elsewhere, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a LOW (15%) probability for severe weather in the day 5 and day 6 outlook. Analysis of forecast surface maps indicate this may be associated with the larger low pressure area that develops around the 8th of this month. As more accurate updates of forecast parameters materialize, I will be including this in my updates. When both become the 3 day outlook, my forecasts will focus on the severe weather threat.
SPC DAY 5 AND 6 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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