February 26, 2024

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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED DEC. 09, 2023…11:00 A.M. EST

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/SPC_outlook_final_updated.png

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms: FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND DELTA REGIONS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY…

…SPC SUMMARY…
A few tornadoes, damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the central Gulf Coast.
SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS
day1otlk_1300
TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_torn
HAIL PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_hail
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_wind

Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, and NAM, all severe threats will be possible during this afternoon into Saturday evening.  Based on analysis of indices and parameters, isolated severe hail could occur within the 15% hail outline.  Analysis this morning also indicates the tornado potential has increased, given the increase in SRH, deep layer shear, and EHI values.  The possibility now exists for an isolated strong tornado within the 5% tornado probability outline.  Based on my analysis of the NAM graphic output, the best probability for this should lie within the red outline on the map I have provided.  A brief summary of the analysis still indicates veering winds with height.  This mornings analysis still indicated rotation in the atmosphere with moderately favorable effective wind shear of 30 – 40 kts and an increase in deep layer shear of 50 – 60 kts.  The following forecast  parameters indicate a moderately unstable environment.  The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning:
SBCAPE: 1500 – 2000 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 1500 – 2000 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 1000 – 1500 j/kg-1
SRH: 200 – 300 m2/s2
L. I.: -3 to -5
STP: 1 – 3
SCP: 3 to 6
EFF. SHEAR: 30 – 40 kts
0 -6 km SHEAR: 50 – 60 kts

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.5 – 7.0C
DEWPOINT: 62F – 69F
EHI: 2.5 – 3.0
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 52 – 54
K INDEX: 31 – 33

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model

NAM SCP FORECAST
nam-nest-central-supercell_comp-1702101600-1702144800-1702180800-80

NAM STP FORECAST
nam-nest-central-sig_tor-1702101600-1702144800-1702180800-80

The following map indicates where an isolated strong tornado COULD occur, based on the NAM model output:
javKu.2
The following maps from the SPC SREF model indicate the probability in percent, of STP values >1 for 12:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. CST:
SREF_prob_sigtor_1__f009
SREF_prob_sigtor_1__f012
SREF_prob_sigtor_1__f015

The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

The following maps, should update automatically for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I have provided the SPC homepage link above, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SAFE AND STURDY SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas.RADR.US
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
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You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2023-12-09 15:54:06

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