March 4, 2024

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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS…ISSUED JAN. 08, 2024…11:20 A.M. EST

7 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/SPC_outlook_final_updated.png
Good morning everyone!
I have updated the abbreviations and satellite / radar pages which are listed in the header.

A lot to go over this morning, this is why the synopsis is late today.  Given the very complex nature of today’s SPC outlook which is very lengthy, I will have the report linked to the first day 1 outlook map.  My synopsis will highlight important points, and of course, provide the index and parameter values analyzed this morning.
The SPC has issued an ENHANCED risk of severe thunderstorms ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.

…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across the Gulf Coast States this afternoon through early Tuesday morning, spanning southeast Texas and southern Louisiana across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle.
SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAPS (first image linked)
day1otlk_1300
TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_torn
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_hailDAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1300_wind
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
IR SATELLITE LOOP
GOMEX.IR
Based on my analysis of the current outlook, CIPS forecast model, and NAM model, information derived from forecast indices indicate the probable threat for some strong/significant tornado activity within the ENHANCED risk outline, particularly in the hatched areas within the SPC outlook map. Damaging wind gusts from various forms of storm modes (anywhere from elevated convection, supercelluar, and QLCS modes).  Based on the combination of strong deep layer shear, effective shear, veering winds with height, and very strong storm relative helicity, isolated significant tornado activity (EF2+) COULD occur within the ENHANCED risk outline, again  more likely within the hatched 10% areas.  The atmosphere will be more buoyant and moderately unstable based on the increase CAPE and Lifted Index values. Surface dewpoints are ample, and relative humidity will be ample, as the low responsible for the weather will be drawing moisture up from the GOMEX. SCP and STP indices are forecast to be fairly large and are based on the average within the ENHANCED risk outline.  It was noted in the animation of models, indices begin pretty strong over the extreme western portion of the risk area (TX), and as the severe weather moves EWD, indices weaken over the MS. region, and by early morning, once again increase over southern AL. and the Florida Panhandle.   Based on my analysis this morning, I cannot rule out at least one isolated PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) tornado watch if and when watches may be issued.  The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning, and pertain to the ENHANCED risk outline:
SBCAPE: 1000 – 1500 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 1200 – 2000 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 1250 – 1500 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 500 – 700 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 600 – 800 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 400 – 500 m2/s2

L. I.: -3 to -5
STP: 3 – 7
SCP: 5 – 14
EFF. SHEAR: 50 – 60 kts
0 -6 km SHEAR: 60 – 70 kts

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 6.5 – 7.0 C/km
DEWPOINT: 61F – 70F
EHI: 4.5+ m2/s2
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 50C
K INDEX: 26 – 35C

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model

NAM SCP FORECAST (1:00 P.M. – 3:00 A.M. CST 08 JAN. – 09 JAN.)
nam-nest-central-supercell_comp-1704715200-1704740400-1704790800-80
NAM STP FORECAST (1:00 P.M. – 3:00 A.M. CST 08 JAN. – 09 JAN.)
nam-nest-central-sig_tor-1704715200-1704740400-1704790800-80
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
You’ll note the large low pressure area in satellite loop imagery above, responsible for today and tomorrows severe threat.  Given severe weather takes precedence, I will not be able to update on winter conditions for the Great Lakes and regions east.  However, strong winds will most likely cause blizzard conditions over those areas, and gusts to hurricane force are forecast along portions of the Mid Atlantic, NE and New England coastal areas and offshore.
nam-218-all-east-gust_mph-4834000
nam-218-all-east-gust_mph-4855600
Please use the following maps which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  Please click on the graphics for text information. You may have to refresh your browser.  I have provided the SPC homepage link above, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid MD Image
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
Valid WW Image
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
Elsewhere, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an ENHANCED risk of severe thunderstorms in the day 2 outlook: ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA…NORTHERN FLORIDA…PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for very strong and damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes.
SPC DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED TO REPORT)
day2otlk_0700
TORNADO OUTLOOK
day2probotlk_0700_torn
HAIL
day2probotlk_0700_hail
DAMAGING WIND
day2probotlk_0700_windThe following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas.radr_.us_
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-01-08 16:15:57

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