Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Don’t forget to set your clocks ahead on Sunday evening, March 14.
Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
This forecast is based on the latest run of the NAM-WRF Mesoscale model, regarding the F5 DATA Severe Weather Maps.. Some of the information could change as consecutive runs are preformed. Please refer to the posted SPC home page which is linked, for the current update regarding this SLIGHT risk forecast.
The SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KANSAS…AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN MISSOURI…
A few severe thunderstorms producing mainly large hail will be possible from northern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and far western Missouri, Wednesday evening and overnight.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED TO OUTLOOK TEXT)
Analysis of information contained in the SPC outlook this evening, the SPC indicates a risk of severe weather will affect portions of KS, OK, and MO. A dryline will extend from eastern Kansas, south into west Texas. The SPC report indicates a warm air mass will be maintained during the day, however the risk area will be under a “capped” environment, basically meaning a somewhat stable atmosphere will be in place most of the day. Later in the evening, pretty much after sunset, and closer to the 9:00 p.m. CST time frame, lift will increase, with a 50 – 60 kt low level jet (approx. 850 – 800 mb level) aiding in moisture, and advection. These conditions are forecast to intersect with the dryline. Strong, deep layer shear values of 100 – 110 kts based on the F5 Data forecast values will allow for storms that do develop, to tilt, and aid in the longevity of the storms. Based on my analysis of SBCAPE values from 250 – 500 over the risk area, mid level lapse rates of 7.0 (slightly elevated) [normal is around 5.5F/1,000 ft] and Lifted Indices of -2 to -3, the main threat appears to mainly the probability of large hail. On another note, no tornado indices appeared on the forecast for the 9:00 p.m. CST forecast, however within the risk area, a significant tornado parameter of 1 to 2 did appear around midnight, although other parameters were lacking.. Though based on the current run, I would concur with SPC in that the tornado threat should be less than 2% as analyzed on the tornado portion of the outlook map. Storms should develop close and to the east of the dryline. Strong wind gusts could occur as well within the risk area tomorrow.
The following F5 DATA maps using the NAM-WRF model indicate where the greatest probability for the severe weather to occur:
F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST SEVERE PROBABILITY 9:00 P.M. CST
F5 DATA DRYLINE LOCATION 9:00 P.M. CST
F5 DATA BEST SEVERE PROBABILITY MIDNIGHT 3/11 CST
F5 DATA DRYLINE MIDNIGHT
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)
Use the following link to see your area forecast. Once on the site, type in your zip code in the green box:
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
Please click the following graphic for current SPC information regarding any severe weather:
SPC HOME PAGE
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: email@example.com
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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