April 11, 2021

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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 11, 2021…8:30 P.M. EST

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Don’t forget to set your clocks ahead on Saturday evening, March 13, prior to turning in for the evening

Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

This forecast is based on the latest run of the NAM-WRF Mesoscale model, regarding the F5 DATA Severe Weather Maps..  Some of the information could change as consecutive runs are preformed, as we just witnessed for yesterday’s outlook, which added another slight risk area for MN.  Please refer to the posted SPC home page which is linked, for the current update regarding this SLIGHT risk forecast for tomorrow’s DAY 1 outlook.

The SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA

…SUMMARY…
Severe storms are possible Friday and Friday night across parts of west Texas, far eastern New Mexico and into western Oklahoma. Isolated hail is possible in surrounding states from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri.

The following graphic is linked to the full text SPC DAY 2 outlook:

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED TO OUTLOOK TEXT)

DAY 2 TORNADO OUTLOOK
WIND OUTLOOK

HAIL OUTLOOK

Based on information contained in the current SPC DAY 2 outlook, severe storms may be sporadic during the day.  Coverage and formation extent will depend on the strength of the capping inversion forecast to be in place during the daytime.  SPC once again indicates the main threat for severe storms to develop, will be approximately 03Z (9:00 P.M. CST).  Based on my analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather Software, using the 18Z NAM-WRF model run, the modeling tends to indicate this scenario at the moment, and seems inline with the SPC SREF forecast.  You’ll note, that the outlines for the severe probabilities do not move much during the late evening to early morning. I’ll be using the STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) of the SREF model, for comparison to the outlines in the F5 Data maps.  Based on analysis of the F5 data, indices indicate a moderate to very unstable atmosphere late tomorrow evening.  The following indices were derived from the data, based on the 9:00 p.m. CST map.  Please use the link following the listed indices, in order to have some idea what the indices stand for:
S.I. = Showalter Index = -4 to -6
L.I. = Lifted Index = -2 to -6
EHI = Energy Helicity Index = 1 to 2
STP = 1 to 6, increasing to 1 to 12 around midnight
CRAVEN BROOKS SIG. SEVERE = 20,000 to 50,000
SBCAPE = 1000 to 1500 j/Kg
MLCAPE = 400 to 1000 j/Kg
SWEAT INDEX = 400 to 500
BRN = 10
Based on these indices, decent sized hail  could most likely occur, along with some isolated tornadoes.  Based on the premise a capping inversion may still be present in the evening, any tornadoes should remain below EF2.  This will depend on whether or not the “cap” erodes and how quickly if it does, and if the current forecast indices do in fact occur.  The following link explains the indices I have listed:
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices
The following outlines in the F5 data maps, indicate where the best probability for severe weather and tornadic activity may occur:

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST SEVERE PROBABILITY 9:00 P.M. CST

F5 DATA BEST SEVERE PROBABILITY MIDNIGHT

F5 DATA BEST SEVERE PROBABILITY 3:00 A.M. CST MAR. 13

SPC SREF MODEL SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER FORECAST 9:00 P.M. CST

12:00 A.M. CST

3:00 A.M. CST

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)


The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)

Use the following link to see your area forecast.  Once on the site, type in your zip code in the green box:
https://www.weather.gov/iwx/fallfrostinfo
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)


Please click the following graphic for current SPC information regarding any severe weather:
SPC HOME PAGE

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2021-03-12 01:31:05

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