January 20, 2021

Weather News – Road Conditions – weather forecast

SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 29, 2020…5:35 P.M. EST

5 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  Without these sites, I’m pretty much left in the dark.  The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the best information I use in my forecasts.
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 30
HURRICANES: 13
MAJOR HURRICANES: 6

U.S. LANDFALLS: 12
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good day!
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) Norman, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NC INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VA… …SUMMARY…
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes appear possible on Monday from parts of Florida into the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

There is a MARGINAL risk over portions of West Central Florida.

SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK

SPC TORNADO OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2

SPC DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2

The following map is for the DAY 1 outlook, which will be current tomorrow.  It should update automatically.  IF NOT, it is linked.  Just click on the image on Monday for the latest regarding the DAY 1 outlook:
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK

A low pressure area is forecast to move out of West Virginia, moving northward over portions of Pennsylvania and New York on Monday.  Based on my analysis of severe weather and tornado forecast indices from F5 DATA software, albeit the Central Florida area is under a MARGINAL risk, information provided by modeling, including the SPC SREF model, the best probability for severe weather, especially tornadic activity, should occur over the SLIGHT risk area of NC / VA.

Given that lift is forecast to be very minimal, with limited SB and MLCAPE values, damaging straight line winds appear to be the highest probability.  However the following indices do tend to favor the development of isolated weak tornadoes:
SBCAPE: 500 – 1000 j/Kg

MLCAPE:
500 – 700j/Kg
EHI:
1 – 2
STP:
2 – 5
SBCAPE
(Surface Based Convective Available Potential Energy)
MLCAPE
(Multi – or Mixed Layer Convective Potential Energy)
These values, along with helicity values of 200 – 250 do provide an atmosphere conducive for weak tornado activity.

Based on the analysis of F5 DATA software, using the NAM –  WRF model forecast parameters, severe weather should occur early in the morning through late morning.  The following F5 DATA maps currently indicate the best probability for severe weather and weak tornadoes to occur lie in the outlined areas:
F5 DATA BEST SEVERE AND TORNADO PROBABILITY 7:00 A.M. EST

F5 DATA BEST SEVERE AND TORNADO PROBABILITY 10:00 A.M. EST

These maps seem to concur with the latest SPC SREF model run:
SREF SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER (MEDIAN)

SREF STORM RELATIVE HELICITY (MEDIAN)

The following are the SPC Mesoscale Discussion and Convective Watches maps.  IF they do not appear to be updating automatically, click on the image for the updated information.  You will need to click the image anyway, to view the text information:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

CONVECTIVE WATCHES

Please click on the following NWS HAZARD AND WARNING map for information on any NWS warnings and statements that may affect your area.  First, click the map, then when the map reloads, click on your area of interest.
NWS WARNINGS MAP

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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