October 1, 2022

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PTC TWO / INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 28, 2022…8:05 P. M. EDT

7 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The NHC  increased the probability of cyclone formation to HIGH (90%) during the next 5 days regarding PTC TWO.  NHC has increased the probability over the northern GOMEX for an area of low pressure (INVEST 95L) to MEDIUM (40%), and LOW (20%) for the disturbance near 45.0W.  As of the 5:00 p. m. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on PTC TWO:

5:00 PM AST Tue Jun 28
Location:
10.1°N 59.5°W
Moving:
W at 24 mph
Min pressure:
1009 mb / 29.80 in
Max sustained:
40 mph

Albeit maximum sustained winds are at 40 mph, the NHC reported, observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, including Tail Doppler radar wind data, along with imagery from the Barbados radar indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation.  Hence, they are not able to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Bonnie.

Satellite imagery shows a system that still appears elongated, but continues to produce some strong convection, and some limited, weak banding features.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
68033892
68033892swir
Based on my analysis of the current wind shear forecast, the pattern becomes more favorable for development once the system clears away from South America, and entering the SW Caribbean.  Models also indicate a continued slow increase in both relative humidity from the surface to 500 mb, as well as an increase in precipitable water.  SHIPS Diagnostics indicates shear to remain at single digits until landfall.  The 200 mb pattern forecast does show a radial outflow pattern, however it remains east of the system.  However, the pattern produced by this feature shows pretty good diffluence aloft.  Based on this, this system does have the potential to become a hurricane, prior to making landfall in Nicaragua.  I pretty much concur with the NHC intensity forecast, however based on the satellite structure and proximity to land, with no closed circulation at the moment, I feel it may take just a little longer for it to become BONNIE.  With the aforementioned forecast pattern, we should see a more steady and possibly significant strengthening begin to occur very early on Fri. and current intensity guidance indicates a CAT. 1 Hurricane in about 72 hours, which I cannot rule out at the moment.
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR
PTC TWO.shear
ECMWF SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-6622800
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 28/2100Z 10.1N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/0600Z 10.8N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 29/1800Z 11.4N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH…TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 30/0600Z 11.9N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 12.1N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 12.1N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 12.0N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 12.0N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
120H 03/1800Z 13.0N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…OVER THE PACIFIC

PTC TWO was moving westward, and based on the current and forecast steering layer mean analyzed this evening, I expect this motion to continue throughout the forecast period, with some slight fluctuations, and I concur with the current NHC forecast track.  18Z guidance was pretty well clustered and indicates the forecast track, and I prefer the TVCA / TVCE consensus which is very close the the official NHC track.

18Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE
aal02_2022062818_track_early
Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been issued, and the following is information from the NHC per the current advisory:
NHC FORECAST TRACK AND WATCHES / WARNINGS GRAPHIC
204611_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind
KEY MESSAGES
204611_key_messages_sm
204611_spanish_key_messages_sm
WIND PROBABILITIES
204611
204611.2
From the 5:00 p. m. advisory:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Venezuela has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the northern coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the northeastern coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, and the northeastern coast of Colombia should monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands, the northeastern
coast of Venezuela, and the ABC Islands through Wednesday.
The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.
St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.
Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.
Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire: 3 to 5 inches.
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands this evening and tonight, over Islas
Margarita and the adjacent islands Wednesday morning,  and over the
ABC Islands by Wednesday evening.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela
tonight, and in the watch area along the northwestern coast of
Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Venezuela by Wednesday
night and early Thursday. 

There were no local NWS products available at the time of this update.

The NHC has designated a small area of low pressure in the northern GOMEX as INVEST 95L.  Satellite loop imagery shows a small area of convection over the area.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 GOMEX LOOP
13676325
13676325vis
You’ll note in the visible loop, the LLC is separated from the convection.  This is due to 25 – 30 of SW shear affecting the area at the moment.  You’ll also note what looks like “strings” of clouds rushing away toward the west of the center.  These are the arc clouds I speak of, which indicate the system is ingesting some drier air.  Based on analysis of the forecast shear pattern, the pattern is forecast to improve over the next 2 days.  NHC has given this a 40% prob. of becoming a depression, however based on the current shear, and dry air, I feel the chance is slim, and current intensity guidance pretty much keeps this below 30 kts.
18Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
aal95_2022062818_intensity_early

Right now, track guidance should be considered low confidence, based on the poor structure of this low.  I will continue to monitor this however, for any significant changes that may occur over the next 48 hours.
18Z TRACK GUIDANCE
aal95_2022062818_track_early

Elsewhere, I do not anticipate Tropical Storm Formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

Elsewhere, I do not anticipate Tropical Storm Formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-06-29 00:02:04

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