December 5, 2022

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PTC 4 FORECAST SYNOPSIS / POSSIBLE SUSPECT AREA EATL BRIEF…ISSUED AUG. 20, 2022…9:10 A.M. EDT

7 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good day everyone!

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

PTC 4 continues to move to the NW this morning.  Satellite loop images indciate the system is looking much less impressive.  Based on the 8: a. m. EDT intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following was available on PTC 4:
7:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 20
Location: 23.2°N 96.0°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
Based on analysis of IR and WV satellite loop images, dry air was noted very close to the system, and the presence of arc clouds leads me to believe PTC 4 has ingested some drier air.  It also appears the system may be traversing a little more west slightly, but still on a NW motion.
PTC 4 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES FROM WEATHERNERDS
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40185976wv
Based on analysis of the current steering layer mean, and forecast steering, I concur with the NHC current forecast track, and current track guidance, except I prefer the left portion of the guidance cluster right now.  This could change, should a closed center develop prior to landfall.
CURRENT STEERING LAYER
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ATCF 06Z TRACK GUIDANCE
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NHC PTC4 FORECAST TRACK
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I’m a little ticked in the global models handling of the forecast conditions as far as shear, and upper level winds.  While the favorable conditions were present last night, the radial shear pattern is no more, and upper level winds are not as robust this morning as the forecast presented.  We now have shear out of the north, and a diminished upper level wind pattern.  Analysis this morning of the ECMWF and GFS still indicate somewhat of a radial shear pattern, which is obviously not the case.  The following is the recent shear and upper level winds map from CIMSS
INVEST 99L.SHEAR
INVEST 99L.UPPER
You heard me mention the lack of a closed surface circulation.  The following is from the NHC forecast discussion from the 5:00 a.m. advisory:

We have a much better view of the low clouds on the western side of the disturbance in proxy-visible satellite imagery than we did last evening when they were obscured by high-level cirrus, and the low clouds’ south-to-north motion just off the coast of Mexico suggests that the disturbance still does not have a closed surface circulation. However, a mid-level circulation remains evident and is the focus of a recent resurgence in deep convection. It is assumed that the maximum winds in the system are still 30 kt, but an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight scheduled for later this morning should give us a better idea of the disturbance’s structure and intensity.

Based on this fact, and the possible dry air intrusion and change in the shear and upper environment, PTC 4 would have to close off a surface circulation to be classified as a depression.  Based on analysis of the SHIPS diagnostic report, wind shear is supposed to increase over the next 12 hours, and the more accurate intensity guidance is not indicating depression strength.  Given the uncertainties now, The prob. has become somewhat slimmer for the system to become a depression, however should conditions change before the forecast of stronger shear, a depression may still develop.  Currently, I have to concur with the NHC intensity guidance, until I can see what the reconnaissance flight sends back.
NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INIT 20/0900Z 22.8N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH…POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 20/1800Z 24.4N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH…TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/0600Z 26.3N 98.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
36H 21/1800Z 27.5N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0600Z…DISSIPATED

From the NHC 8:00 a.m. EDT intermediate advisory:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the
Mouth of the Rio Grande
* The Lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning
area beginning this afternoon or evening.
RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches, along
the eastern coast of Mexico from the northern portions of the state
of Veracruz across the state of Tamaulipas to Nuevo Leon through
today.  Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will be possible in South Texas
through Sunday morning, with continuing uncertainty in how far north
and west these amounts will be realized.  The potential exists for
flash flooding elsewhere along the track of the disturbance.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of Rio Grande to Port Mansfield TX...1-2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 2 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern Mexico
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
SURF: Swells generated by this system are forecast to affect eastern
Mexico and southern Texas this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

NWS LOCAL PRODUCTS LINK (CLICK ON THE BOLD BLUE HEADINGS)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls4+shtml/200842.shtml?

NHC FORECAST PRODUCTS
083225_key_messages_sm
083225_spanish_key_messages_sm
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL
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RAINFALL FORECAST FROM WPC
083225WPCQPF_sm
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

On the following radar map, click the map and once the radar map site is reached, go over to the right and click loop duration for length of the radar loop.

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)

I’ll be monitoring PTC 4 on and off during the day, and will update when I can.

Elsewhere, NHC has designated a LOW (20%) probability of cyclone development for the wave about to exit Africa in 24 – 36 hours.  The ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability forecast is giving this a pretty high chance of becoming a depression during the next 96 hours.  I will be looking into this, once we are finished with PTC 4.
AFRICASAT
sat_20220820_1130_animation
NHC 5 DAY GTWO
two_atl_5d1

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_120

Elsewhere, I do not expect Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-08-20 12:59:22

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