Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine in the Gulf, May Become Harold : The Alabama Weather Blog

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (LIKELY TO BECOME HAROLD)
The National Hurricane Center has designated the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine in anticipation that it will organize into a tropical storm overnight or early Tuesday morning before making landfall north of Port Mansfield, south of Corpus Christi around 7 a.m. tomorrow.

The broad area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico continues to gradually become better organized with showers and thunderstorms increasing on the system’s north side. However, surface observations and early morning visible satellite images suggest that it does not have a well-defined center yet, and therefore, does not meet the definition of a tropical cyclone at this time. Since the system is forecast to strengthen and make landfall as a tropical storm on Tuesday, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine with Tropical StormWarnings now in effect for portions of south Texas.

The disturbance is moving fairly quickly to the west at 14 kt on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge located over the central U.S. An even faster motion to the west or west-northwest is expected, taking the system over southern Texas by midday Tuesday. It should be noted that since the system does not yet have a clear center, the details of the track forecast are a bit uncertain. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, which should help assess the low-level structure.

The environmental factors are generally favorable for the system to strengthen. However, there is limited time for the disturbance to take advantage of those conditions, especially since it still lacks a well-defined center. The NHC official intensity forecast shows the system reaching a peak intensity of 40 kt before landfall, which is near the high end of the model guidance. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.

Tropical Storm Warnings have ben issued for portions of the Middle and Lower Texas Coast from Port OConnor to Brownsville. A Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued from Port O’Connor northward to Sargent.

Winds may reach tropical storm force along the coast early Tuesday in places like Corpus Christi, Rockport, Cabaniss, Alice, Kingsville, and Beeville.

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS…
…FLOODING RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…25.0N 89.9W
ABOUT 480 MI…770 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHE

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 25.0 North, longitude 89.9 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A fast motion to the west
is expected to continue, and the system is forecast to move inland
over south Texas early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a
tropical storm before it reaches the Texas coast.

Satellite images indicate that the system is becoming better
organized and it is expected to become a tropical depression later
today.
Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected
across South Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. The heavy rainfall may
produce areas of flash and urban flooding. Across portions of
Coahilla and Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible
landslides in mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast
tonight through Tuesday morning.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and
are possible in the watch area beginning Tuesday morning.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical