As of this morning’s model runs, we are looking at the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms with a cold front that will move through Central Alabama on Thursday. At this point, all of Central Alabama will be under a risk. The southern half of the area has been placed under a level 2 Slight Risk for severe storms while the northern half is under a level 1 Marginal Risk.
Damaging straight line thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 mph and a few tornadoes will be possible in the slight risk locations. Those threats will be less likely in the marginal risk locations, but cannot be completely ruled out. At this point, the timing looks to be centered on the afternoon through the night-time hours on Thursday.
At this point, all of North Alabama (including Cullman County) would be in a marginal risk for severe storms as well, as NWS Huntsville stated in their morning briefing, strong to severe thunderstorms are generally forecast for areas south of the Tennessee state line.
Heavy rainfall will be another factor that we’ll have to deal with as we could see totals of 2-3 inches across much of the area with some localized amounts of 4 inches possible. All of this will occur from Wednesday evening through midday on Friday. Some minor flooding issues may occur late on Thursday in low-lying or poor drainage areas.
We’ll be able to get a much better idea of what to expect and better refine the timing once the higher-resolution models come into view. The NAM-12k may have enough information by 10 pm tonight, but the NAM-3k should be available by 10:00 am on Tuesday. I’ll keep you posted.
About the Author (Author Profile)
Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.