July 21, 2024

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POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GOMEX FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 23, 2023…9:45 P.M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11– 14
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:          8
HURRICANES:                1
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone!
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  I was not able to forecast last night as I did not get home until 9:30 p.m.
ATLANTIC WIDE SATELLITE LOOP
Atlantic.wide
Again, my apologies to my friends in the islands.  I was not able to go into detail on Franklin.  I am limited in time in the evening, as it takes about 3 hours total to analyze, type up, and post my reports on a storm.  However, beginning Monday, I will be doing forecasts in the a.m., as I will be retiring Friday.  This will allow me to address multiple systems if needed.  Having analyzed the upcoming pattern however, I am going to keep an eye on Franklin, in the event conditions allow the system to begin heading toward the U.S.  For this evening, please refer to the NHC for the latest information on Franklin:
GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP
FRANKLIN
cone graphic
NHC WEBSITE LINK:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/204907.shtml?cone#contents

Elsewhere, global models over the past few runs have been indicating development in the GOMEX by next week, and are on and off holding onto the “system”, and deviate on strength and direction of travel.  The model that has been most consistent has been the ECMWF, of which I will be using the graphics from said global model.  First, the ECMWF EPS  cyclone formation probability model indicates a HIGH probability of a tropical depression over the next 72 – 96 hours, a medium range projection for a Tropical Storm around days 5 – 7, and a low probability of a Hurricane by days 6 – 7.
ECMWF EPS T.D., T.S., AND HURRICANE PROBABILITIES
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_gulf_96
eps_tropcyc_prob_34_gulf_168
eps_tropcyc_prob_64_gulf_168
While there is still doubt in this, given the inconsistency of modeling, I cannot rule out development, given the conditions analyzed this evening.  Based on analysis of the GFS 12Z 850 mb map, it appears if development occurs, that it would be induced by the CAG (Central American Gyre).  I have this drawn in on the map for you:
gfs.t12z.850mb_wind.f036.camerica
CAG GRAPHIC
image-33
Second, based on both the ECMWF and GFS models indicate very favorable conditions mainly during the first 96 hours from 12Z this morning, with a well defined radial shear pattern, and decent radial outflow.  The current shear forecast calls for the radial shear pattern to be maintained throughout the period, however after 96 hours, the 200 mb streamline pattern becomes less favorable in relation to the supposed low, but still maintains a somewhat divergent pattern.  PWAT and mid level moisture are forecast to remain favorable with high PWAT and 500 mb moisture.  However, near the end of the 96 hour period, some drier air is noted to the south of the possible low.  Again, I will use the ECMWF graphics:
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-3137600
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-pwat_mm-3137600
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-3137600
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-3137600
ECMWF FORECAST 144 HOURS
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-3310400
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-3310400
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-3310400
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-rh500-3310400
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-pwat-3310400
Given the divergence in the models, the forecast should be considered low confidence, however, if the parameters analyzed do turn out to be as favorable as shown, with the premise of the CAG centered over central America, I believe we could very well see some type of development begin to occur within the next 72 hours.  i will continue to monitor this very closely for any significant changes to the forecast pattern.

I did want to mention, that the tropics may become quiet again as the 500 mb anomaly pattern is forecast to shift again, with higher anomalies returning to the MDR, and lower anomalies returning north of the MDR:
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-z500_norm_anom-3310400
The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)


RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 



palmharborforecastcenter

2023-08-24 01:38:04

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