May 18, 2021

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POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 11, 2021…3:00 P.M. EDT

4 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  Without these sites, I’m pretty much left in the dark.  The F5 Data maps I post as well for severe weather, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), are also out of pocket to me. Please keep in mind, even when the hurricane season ends, I have to keep up on these site subscriptions for severe weather and winter weather.  In all, I put out $68 a month to provide you, what I hope are accurate forecasts. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the information I use in my forecasts
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

Good evening,
Analysis of the ECMWF and GFS global models this afternoon indicates an area of low pressure forecast to develop just off the DELMARVA area by Thursday morning.  Based on current forecast motion, the low will make a semi-cyclonic loop, prior to consolidating and deepening.  The low is then forecast to move off to the NE, and away from the coast by the weekend.  Currently, this low is forecast to reach around 996 mb (29.41 in.).  Surface winds in some portions may attain weak T.S. force, however should remain offshore, until the center of the low crosses into Maine, where these stronger winds will move in closer to the coast.  Surprisingly, the system does not appear to produce copious amounts of precipitation within the 72 hour period from initialization.  I do not anticipate this developing any tropical characteristics.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES ANIMATION MAPS
ecmwf-deterministic-ne-mslp_norm_anom-1618099200-1618488000-1618682400-80
gfs-deterministic-ne-mslp_norm_anom-1618142400-1618488000-1618682400-80
ECMWF AND GFS SURFACE WIND SPEED ANIMATION MAPS
gfs-deterministic-ne-wnd10m_stream_mph-1618142400-1618488000-1618682400-80
gfs-deterministic-ne-wnd10m_stream_mph-1618142400-1618488000-1618682400-80
ECMWF AND GFS 72 HOUR PRECIPITATION ANIMATION MAPS
ecmwf-deterministic-ne-precip_72hr_inch-1618099200-1618488000-1618682400-80
gfs-deterministic-ne-precip_72hr_inch-1618142400-1618488000-1618682400-80
Sea heights are currently forecast to reach 9 – 14 ft, however should only affect commercial shipping.  It is advised however, that small craft remain in port, and residents along the coast remain away from beaches.
ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION
ecmwf-wave-ne-sig_height_wave_dir-1618099200-1618488000-1618682400-80
I will try to have another update during the week, and will be monitoring further model updates.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2021-04-11 19:01:39

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