Paper describing a new forecast model that follows multiple tropical cyclones at the same time highlighted on the cover of the latest Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society – Hurricane Research Division1 min read
Forecast models that follow individual tropical cyclones (TCs), like NOAA’s Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model, have contributed to significant improvement of intensity forecasts for over a decade. The original HWRF could only follow one TC, but recent advances allow individual multiple nests to follow more than one TC. This is the first time that the value added to TC forecasts by storm-following nests has been quantified, with intensity forecast improvements of up to 10% simply by adding nests for more than one TC. The results of this work will guide storm-following nest developments in the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), NOAA’s next-generation hurricane model.
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