The bottom line
The Mid-Atlantic region should experience slightly colder-than-normal temperatures this winter season and normal-to-slightly above-normal snowfall amounts based upon an analysis of such factors as global sea surface temperature anomalies, the likelihood of “high-latitude blocking” events, and an evaluation of analog years. Much of the snow in the Mid-Atlantic region may come in the second half of the winter season (i.e., February, March) as winter weather conditions will tend to hang on as we push towards the spring equinox. Elsewhere in the US, colder-than-normal conditions appear likely this winter from the Northern Plains-to-New England and warmer, drier weather conditions compared to normal should dominate across much of the southern and western US with especially dry conditions possible across California.
In terms of specific numbers for the Mid-Atlantic region, temperatures should average from 0.5-1.5°C below-normal for the winter season and snowfall estimates in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor are as follows:
~20 inches in Washington, D.C with ~25 inches in the DC suburbs including around Dulles Airport (VA);
~25 inches in Philadelphia, PA with ~30 inches in the Philly suburbs;
~30 inches in Central Park, NY with ~35 inches in the NYC suburbs.
We will continue to closely monitor all of these oceanic, atmospheric and solar factors over the next several weeks and as we progress through the winter season of 2020-2021.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Extended video discussion: