November 27, 2022

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NW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 17, 2022…8:45 P. M. EDT

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
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Good evening everyone!

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Based on analysis of satellite loop imagery this evening, the MDR is still having its share of problems.  Once again, based on the updated information I posted on the MJO forecast, I wouldn’t expect conditions to become unstable in the atmosphere close to the beginning to mid part of next week, when the MJO should enter phase 2 based on most of the phase space diagrams.  The JMA updates once again tomorrow, and I’ll look at the new forecast.  Elsewhere, I am closely monitoring the tropical wave now located over Belize.  This should enter the BOC by Fri., and the NHC has raised the probability of cyclone development to LOW (30%) during the next 5 days.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

You can make out the rotation in the loop imagery.  You’ll note in the water vapor loop, a mid/upper level low to the NW of the wave.  This should be aiding in ventilating the area, which could aid in some further slow development.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 NW CARIBBEAN/GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP (IR AND WATER VAPOR)


ATLANTIC WIDE LOOP

I am making this short tonight, as I had to make another weather group on Facebook as the other group got hacked, and that ate up quite a bit of time.

Based on the updated ECMWF EPS cyclone probability forecast, the ensemble indicates a 55% prob. of a tropical depression forming during the next 24-72 hours, out to 48-96 hours.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITIES

Neither the ECMWF and GFS global models show any development from this feature, albeit as with 98L, conditions are forecast to be somewhat favorable for slow development as this feature enters the BOC.  I am going to reference only the ECMWF in order to save time.  Forecast conditions are almost the same as they were for 98L, however the radial shear pattern is not as robust, and the 200 mb radial outflow will be east of the system, however there will be a diffluent flow aloft over the center of the system.  As this occurs, we could see an increase in coverage and organization similar to 98L, however I believe a tad bit slower.  How much it organizes will depend on exactly how it travels.  IF it takes the outline in the NHC outlook map, then it will eventually run out of water for further development, and most likely wouldn’t attain depression status.  Should steering take it further east, but following the same outline, it would be over water longer, hence possible further slow development.  I’ll have a better idea once this enters the BOC.

The following graphics from the ECMWF show excellent forecast moisture at the surface, and up through the mid levels of the atmosphere, based on PWAT and Relative Humidity values.  The shear forecast indicates somewhat of a radial shear pattern at that time.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY AND SHEAR FORECAST MAPS


ECMWF PWAT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST


I will continue to monitor this feature closely, and the remainder of the tropics for any significant changes that may occur.

Elsewhere, I do not expect Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-08-18 00:40:01

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