December 4, 2022

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Nicole Continues to Intensify; New Tropical Storm & Storm Surge Watches Issued

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SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.5N 73.7W
ABOUT 285 MI…460 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 395 MI…640 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.24 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida
* North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 73.7 West. Nicole is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-southwest motion is expected through early Wednesday. A westward to west-northwest motion is forecast to begin later on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas tonight, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area Wednesday night or early Thursday. Nicole’s center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday when it is near the northwestern Bahamas, and remain a hurricane when it approaches the east coast of Florida.

Nicole is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning across all the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the east coast of Florida Wednesday night or Thursday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday within the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florida by Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge…3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South Carolina…2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown Florida…2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach…2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to the Ochlockonee River…2 to 4 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Anclote River including Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay…1 to 2 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida…1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8 inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread north farther up the Eastern Seaboard late Thursday into Friday.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible from eastern Florida into parts of eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina beginning late Wednesday night and continuing through Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern United States coast during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Scott Martin

2022-11-08 22:07:10

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