We have a yellow circle by Africa.
0% in 2 day
20% in 7 day
There has been consistent model support that a wave shows some possibility of development, some models lose the wave down the line and there’s always a chance some part survives and comes back later and tries to develop. It’s not strong support, but it’s consistent so the NHC is more closely monitoring it. That’s all there is to say right now. As for the old purple splotch map….it shows the same possible development.
As for now…. just something to watch.
It’s worth remembering that with the 7 day Hurricane Map it’s common to have more long shots as generally longer range modeling is weaker and less reliable than a 3 to 5 day model. But they do show patterns and we can infer much about the next week in the tropics. So stay tuned.
Out and about with some guests and friends this weekend. Will update at length Monday morning. Til then, don’t sleep on hurricane prep just because the tropics look asleep.
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Enjoy what’s left of the Summer, once winter starts you’ll be wishing it would leave I’m sure if forecasts for a stronger winter than usual this year.
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