December 4, 2022

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NEW ENGLAND / NORTHEAST WINTER STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 20, 2022…5:30 P.M. EST

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:       8
MAJOR HURRICANES:      2

U. S. LANDFALLS: 3

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Good evening everyone!

Analysis of the ECMWF and GFS global models indicate a large, powerful low pressure system will affect the northern tier of states, mainly around the Great Lakes region, NEWD to the NE and New England states by next weekend.  The ECMWF indicates this develops from a low that traverses the southern portion of Canada, then dips south, becoming absorbed by low pressure moving out of the Bahamas area, and becoming the dominant low, and strengthening to 970 to 968 mb, while the GFS indicates the low from Canada being absorbed by low pressure moving up toward the NE, originating from along the Gulf Coast states and moving offshore.  Regardless, it appears the main impact will be over the areas mentioned.   Surface winds will be strongest offshore and along some of the coastal areas from the Mid Atlantic states, northward.  Colder temperatures will be in store with much of the U.S. from the central portion, eastward falling into the 30’s and 20’s, with 30’s moving into the north Florida area, and mid to upper 40’s over much of the remainder of the Peninsula.  Wave heights could reach 5 – 7 ft along the coastal areas from the Mid Atlantic states, northward, with very hi wave heights offshore.  Commercial shipping should take evasive action to avoid the area, and residents along the coast should remain away from beaches and off the water.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-conus-mslp_norm_anom-1668945600-1669204800-1669550400-80
ecmwf-deterministic-ne-mslp_norm_anom-1668945600-1669377600-1669572000-80
gfs-deterministic-conus-mslp_norm_anom-1668945600-1669204800-1669550400-80
gfs-deterministic-ne-mslp_norm_anom-1668945600-1669377600-1669550400-80
SURFACE WINDS FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-conus-wnd10m_stream_mph-1668945600-1669334400-1669550400-80
gfs-deterministic-conus-wnd10m_stream_mph-1668945600-1669420800-1669550400-80

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST 27 NOV 2022
ecmwf-deterministic-central-t2m_f-9550400
ecmwf-deterministic-ne-t2m_f-9550400
ecmwf-deterministic-se-t2m_f-9550400
ECMWF AND WAVEWATCH 3 WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
ecmwf-wave-conuswide-sig_height_wave_dir-1668945600-1669204800-1669550400-80
ecmwf-wave-east-sig_height_wave_dir-1668945600-1669204800-1669550400-80
ww3-conuswide-ww3_sig_wave_height_dir-1668945600-1669204800-1669561200-20
ww3-east-ww3_sig_wave_height_dir-1668945600-1669204800-1669561200-20
This system is expected to bring heavy snowfall amounts to portions of the northern New England area, with lighter snowfall amounts projected west of the NE states.
ECMWF AND GFS PROJECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ecmwf-deterministic-ne-total_snow_kuchera-9550400
ecmwf-deterministic-greatlakes-total_snow_kuchera-9550400
gfs-deterministic-ne-total_snow_kuchera-9550400
gfs-deterministic-greatlakes-total_snow_kuchera-9550400
I will continue to monitor forecast parameters regarding this system, and will try to update sometime during the week, as I’m sure strength of the system and other parameters will most likely change during the course of the next 72 -96 hours.

The following map will allow you to get information from your local NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-11-20 22:14:35

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